Snowless Kashmir sparks concerns over key sectors, ecology and economy

Kashmir's winter is divided into three phases: “Chillai Kalan”, the harshest 40 days when snowfall is heaviest and the period lasts till January 29, followed by 20 days of lighter “Chillai Khord” lasts till February 19 and 10 days of “Chille Bachi”, baby cold, lasts till March 2.

Regarding the ongoing dry weather experts blame El Nino, a climatic phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean for the unusual dry weather in the Valley this season.

El Nino’s impact in Kashmir according to director MeT, Kashmir, Mukhtar Ahmad is apparent through prolonged dry spells, milder winters, and diminished snowfall. “ Due to this year’s strong El Nino, western disturbances (WD), leading from the global atmospheric circulation are without moisture, resulting in dry weather in Kashmir. The WD, a type of storm that originates in the Mediterranean region, and it is the reason for most of the winter and pre-monsoon season rainfall in north-west India is absent due to the shifting of Subtropical Westerly Jet Streams to a Higher Latitude. However, now El Nino is expected to get weaker which means we may see frequent wet spells from now onwards.”

The ongoing prolonged dry weather in Kashmir triggered by the El Nino effect is not unprecedented but such dry spells were recorded even in December 2018, January 2015, December 2014, January 1998, December 1992, January 1993, December 1986, and January 1987.

Faizan who runs Kashmir Weather, a famous weather channel on social media, however argued and said that the current dry spell can be attributed to global warming induced climate change. “There is no direct relation between El Nino and Chillai Kalan in Kashmir. Humans actually impact the environment in many ways which includes pollution, burning of fossil fuels, deforestation that ultimately disturb the climate. Climate change is happening world wide and J&K, an ecologically fragile tourist destination is also witnessing its impact.”

Snow-covered Gulmarg, Kashmir, this time last year (top) and snowless now. (Photo: Nasir Kachroo via @OmarAbdullah/X)

MeT director told Moneycontrol that Kashmir has witnessed deficit precipitation of 80 per cent in November, 70 percent in December and 100 percent in January.

To understand the cause of prevailing dry weather in Kashmir Moneycontrol reached out to Nadeem Qadri, environmental lawyer and activist who also attributed climate change to prevailing dry weather in J&K. For example, he said that the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had declared 2023 the “warmest year” on  record therefore 2024 is also starting on the same note with the Himalayas recording snowless winter and warming temperatures. “Even if it snows in February it will not serve much to the local ecology, farming and other key sectors because snow after January melts quickly and does not stick on glaciers. Our 70-75 per cent economy is dependent on agriculture and allied sectors and the prolonged dry spell may spell doom for our economy.”

Last week people across Kashmir even sought divine intervention for rains and snow. Mosques and shrines across the Valley, including Srinagar's Jamia Masjid, hosted “Salat-ul-Istisqa”, a special prayer seeking end to the protracted dry period.

Thousands of people with heavy emotions on January 19 participated in the prayers across the Valley and sought forgiveness and divine intervention to seek an end to the arid weather conditions in Kashmir.

Though weatherman predicted the light rain and snow in J&K from January 25-31 but he quickly added that one wet spell can break jinx of dry spell but can not compensate the losses on key sectors including tourism industry, agriculture, horticulture, the mainstay of Kashmir’s economy besides fisheries and hydroelectric power generation.

“Our glaciers are melting rapidly due to increase in local temperature and global warming. The ongoing dry spell in winter has now aggravated the problem causing more stress on our glaciers. The prevailing climate crisis has immediately hit winter tourism and hydropower but in the long run our vital sectors including agriculture, horticulture and water bodies will also get badly hit. Unless it snows sufficiently during the ongoing winter perennial water reservoirs in the mountains may not get replenished to sustain water in Kashmir’s lakes, streams, rivers and springs during the summer, ” the MeT director cautioned.

Kashmir’s Jal Shakti department has advised people to use water judiciously since water shortage complaints have increased over the past few weeks. “Water bodies across the Valley have partially dried, causing a decline in regular portable water supply. The water level in some water bodies have dried upto 90 percent which means portable water supply tankers are about to be pressed into service to provide drinking water to people, ” said an official of Jal Shakti department posted in south Kashmir.

Even Jammu and Kashmir’s Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha voiced concerns over the snowless winter and said that snow is vital for power projects to run and the tourism sector to thrive in the Union Territory. “I pray to God for snow as snowfall is must for power projects to run, otherwise they will become defunct. Snowfall is also a must to keep the tourism sector thriving,” said Sinha while addressing a function last week in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district.

So far the dry spell has triggered an immediate impact on hydroelectric power generation and winter tourism.

On January 18, Kashmir Power Distribution Company Limited (KPDCL) announced an increase in electricity curtailment by 2 to 2.5 hours across Kashmir during peak hours. “This is for the information of the general public that due to a drastic reduction in power generation resulting in reduced availability of power, KPDCL shall be forced to temporarily increase the curtailment by 2 to 2.5 hours across Kashmir Valley during peak hours,” KPDCL said in a post on X. “The temporary increase shall be reversed as soon as sufficient power is available,” it said, adding, “The inconvenience caused is deeply regretted.”

The tourism industry has also suffered badly since the snow could not yet drape Valley in white. For example, the J&K government data revealed that 95,989 tourists, including 547 foreigners, had visited Gulmarg in January last year however this year the footfall has drastically reduced by at least 60 percent.

“The dry spell has led to the cancellation of hotel bookings mainly in Gulmarg. Almost 30 per cent of bookings have been cancelled while a number of tourists have deferred their plans to come to Kashmir till February. Due to lack of snow the hotels in Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonmarg are witnessing low occupancy,” Mushtaq Chaya, one of the leading hoteliers from Kashmir told Moneycontrol.

Similarly, India’s winter wonderland Gulmarg, also known as the famed ski resort of Kashmir is without snow these days, leaving winter sports enthusiasts, who flock to Gulmarg for skiing, cross-country skiing, snowboarding, and other winter activities dejected. Even scores of tourists have returned home from Kashmir disappointed without getting a feel of snow, causing a major jolt to Kashmir’s tourism industry, which contributes 7 per cent to the region’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Clouds are also hovering over the 4th edition of the Khelo India Winter Games scheduled to be held in Gulmarg from February 2 to 6 because without snow the annual national winter games can not be held.

Arif said that Jhelum river, the major source of irrigation in Kashmir is also running at an all time lowest level. The rivers at Sangam and Asham he said are flowing at the lowest recorded levels.

The houseboat owners are also having sleepless nights in the face of the persistent decline in the water levels of waterbodies — Dal Lake, Wular Lake and the Jhelum River.

The prolonged dry spell has so far left people mostly elderly and children sick with peripheral and tertiary care hospitals across Kashmir jam-packed with patients suffering from respiratory diseases.

The incidents of forest fires have also surged due to dry spell, causing massive loss and damage to acres of green forests in the Himalayan region. For example, the officials said that in the month of December, 24 incidents of forest fire were recorded across Kashmir. In response to these forest fires, authorities have imposed a ban on unauthorised entry into forests and Wildlife Protected Areas of Kashmir.

Qadri who works at the Jammu Kashmir High Court called for immediate implementation of a climate policy, underscoring the region’s severe environmental crisis. “Every state and UT has a climate action plan and we are also looking for revised climate policy so that climate targets and sustainable goals are achieved with utmost focus on use of renewable energy and afforestation. We also need region specific environmental laws and regulations to prevent environmental degradation.”