A delayed monsoon, with uneven rainfall distribution, has led to a decline in the sowing of rice and pulses, the major kharif crops. As of July 7, the sown area of kharif crops has declined by 8.7 percent compared to last year.
While the total sown area of rice fell 23.9 percent, the acreage for pulses plummeted 25.8 percent, as compared to last year, per the Union Ministry of Agriculture.
Arhar, a type of pulse that is seeing a rise in retail prices, has seen the biggest decline, with its sown acreage plunging 60 percent. Arhar is being imported to meet demand, and the decline in sowing area is a cause for concern.
Rainfall deficit
The fall in sown area has been attributed to uneven rainfall distribution across the country, with several rice and pulse-producing states remaining rainfall deficient.
Deficient rainfall in major rice-producing states, such as West Bengal (which recorded 11 percent below-normal rainfall), Andhra Pradesh (22 percent below normal), Odisha (25 percent below normal), Telangana (35 percent below normal), Chattisgarh (12 percent below normal), Bihar (29 percent below normal) and Assam (2 percent below normal), has affected rice sowing.
States with higher irrigation cover, such as Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, will be less impacted, said a Motilal Oswal report.
While the lower sown area of rice and pulses is a concern, it is still early days to assess the exact impact, says Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia Economics, Barclays.
“The bulk of sowing activity takes place between July and the second week of August. It would be premature to comment on what the outcome related to shortages may be,” he said, in a conversation with Moneycontrol.
Economists are expecting a better view by mid-August as they expect rainfall to rise and cover deficient areas as well. “In the pulse growing belt, such as Madhya Pradesh etcetera, rainfall activity has begun to pick up and we may see the same in other areas as well,” Bajoria said.
Meanwhile, states such as Punjab, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat have registered heavy rainfall. Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh have received normal rainfall, as per the IMD.
Reservoir logs
In terms of storage, the reservoir level as a percentage of total capacity stood at 29 percent as on 6 July, per the latest data released by the Central Water Commission (CWC).
Total live storage available in 146 reservoirs stood at 96 percent of last year’s level and 110 percent of the average storage for the last 10 years.
The Northern region continues to have a higher reservoir level (45 percent against 24 percent last year), followed by the Central (35 percent versus 30 percent last year), Western (28 percent versus 26 percent) and Eastern region (20 percent against 18 percent).
The reservoir level in the Southern region is currently far lower, at 20 percent, versus 40 percent last year.
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