Reduce Blue Dart Express; target of Rs 6400: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial's research report on Blue Dart Express

BDE reported a strong quarter as consolidated sales grew 9% YoY and EBITDA margins expanded 70bps YoY, on the back of higher utilization of new aircrafts and general price increase undertaken in Q4. With Guwahati going live in Jan24, the management expects further ramp-up in volumes, utilization, and profitability. Maintaining growth momentum with a premium-pricing model in a highly competitive B2B express market remains a tall ask, in our view. With H1FY25 expected to be muted for logistics players, owing to seasonality and pending central elections, we remain watchful around sustainability of volume growth and margins for BDE.

Outlook

We marginally raise our EBITDA estimates for FY25/26E by 4% each, factoring-in the beat; we maintain our REDUCE rating. Our Mar-25E TP stands at Rs6,400/sh (using DCF methodology), implying FY26E EV/EBITDA of 14x and P/E of 35x.