Gladiator Stocks - Timken India: ICICI Direct

Within capital goods sector, bearing companies have undergone healthy retracement after CY20 up move. We remain constructive on Timken India given its higher relative strength ranking. The stock has resolved out of recent base formation (Rs 1338-1206) above its 50 day’s EMA coinciding with upward sloping trend line that has been held on multiple occasions since May 2020, highlighting inherent strength, auguring well for resumption of primary uptrend. The consolidation breakout backed by volume above 10 weeks average volumes signifies rejuvenation of upward momentum. This makes us confident the stock would accelerate upward momentum towards target of Rs 1548 in coming months as it is 138.2% external retracement of February-March decline (Rs 1450-1206). Since May 2020, the stock has maintained the rhythm of maturity of price wise and time wise correction. In the last one year, price wise none of the corrections exceeded more than 20% and time wise intermediate corrections arrested within six weeks, indicating secular up trend is intact. In the current scenario, the stock underwent base formation after 17% correction. Hence, it offers a favourable risk reward set up.

Fundamental View

Timken India Limited, a Timken Company subsidiary, started manufacturing bearings in India nearly three decades ago and today has state-of-the-art manufacturing plants in Jamshedpur and Bharuch to serve local bearing market needs and beyond. Employing the highly collaborative technical selling model for which Timken is known, the India team works directly with large OEM customers and with end users through a network of authorized distributors to make design and application recommendations to optimize performance and reliability. Timken India reported subdued numbers in Q3 led by slower recovery in CV and industrial segments. Nonetheless, we expect better showing in Q4 led by better performance in industrials, higher exports and steady demand from the wind and tractor segment. The upcoming DFC, conversion of conventional coaches to LHB coaches and a cyclical recovery in the CV segment is expected to augur well for the company going ahead.

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Timken India 12-04-2021-icici