Buy Shriram Transport Finance; target of Rs 960: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal 's research report on Shriram Transport Finance

SHTF’s 4QFY20 PAT declined 70% YoY to INR2.2b (65% miss). While operating profit missed our estimates by 8% due to lower-than-expected NII, higher COVID-19 related provisions of INR9.1b led to the PAT miss. PAT declined 2% YoY in FY20 while RoA/RoE stood at 2.3%/15%. The company collected money from 84%/23%/52% of its customers in Mar/Apr/May’20 and in value terms it stood at ~15%/30% of Apr/May’20 collections. NIMs declined 38bp QoQ to 6.76% as the currency movement on forex borrowings and higher excess liquidity impacted margins. GS3 remained stable YoY and declined 36bp QoQ to 8.36%. We downgrade our EPS estimates by 11% for FY21E on the back of lower loan book growth. Our channel checks indicate that the used CV and driver-cum-operator segments (which are SHTF’s target segments) are doing much better than other segments in CV financing.

Outlook

We believe risk-reward at the current level is favorable, Buy with a TP of INR960 at 1x PBV FY22E. In the current environment, the outlook on credit cost remains uncertain. We downgrade our EPS estimates by 11% for FY21E on the back of lower loan book growth. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR960 at 1x PBV FY22E.