Buy Petronet LNG; target of Rs 300: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial's research report on Petronet LNG

For Q3FY24, PLNG reported adj. EBITDA of Rs13.2bn, a 13% beat, led by betterthan-expected spot margins. PLNG booked Rs6.1bn of take or pay for CY23 and provisioned Rs2.3bn w.r.t. CY21-22. The board has approved recovery of the same and PLNG has sought BGs from offtakers, besides asking shortfall volumes to be met through excess offtake within three years. Dahej/Kochi terminal utilization was slightly higher than expected at 97%/22%. PLNG’s APAT stood at Rs9.1bn, up 11% QoQ and a 14% beat. Adj. EBITDA/mmbtu rose 15% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rs57.1.

Outlook

We raise FY24-26E earnings by 1-4% each on slightly higher volumes. We roll over to Dec-25E but raise our Dec-24 DCF-based TP by 23% to Rs300, building annual tariff revision of 2-3% for 10yrs beyond FY28 (vs. flat tariff earlier) as QatarGas renewal announcement nears. Retain BUY.