Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Oil India
We change our FY23-25E estimates by 9.6%/4.1/-1.9% to factor in higher oil realization of US$84/75/70bbl ($73/70/70bbl earlier), even as we increase our FY23E dividend payout to Rs24.2bn vs Rs11.6bn earlier (9MFY23 dividend payout at 22.5% to Rs14.5/sh). Oil India (OINL) reported consolidated EBIDTA/PAT of Rs41.8bn (+55%Q/Q)/Rs25.3bn (+20%Q/Q), led by healthy crude oil & gas realization along with steady Numaligarh Refinery (NRL) performance. Standalone EBIDTA came at Rs28.6bn (+54%Q/Q PLe Rs24.1bn) due to lower other expense, while PAT remained flat at Rs17.5bn (PLe Rs15.6bn).
Outlook
We believe OINL’s earnings will ride on new capacity addition across crude oil, natural gas and refinery. Maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of Rs305 (Rs300), based on 3.0x/EV/E FY24E and add value of investment in IOCL.
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