Buy Affle 3i; target of Rs 2280: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct's research report on Affle 3i

We view Affle 3i (Affle) as a play on the structural shift of ad spend towards digital in India and other emerging markets, where digital penetration is still low versus global benchmarks. Its differentiated CPCU (cost per converted user) model directly aligns revenues with advertiser ROI, offering resilience versus impression-led peers. Over the medium term, we believe Affle could sustain ~20% revenue CAGR, supported by rising CPCU realisations, international expansion, and scaling of new verticals such as CTV. We estimate EBITDA margins to be resilient in the 22–24% range. Conversely, downside is limited by its strong operating cash flows, providing a balanced risk-reward profile.

Outlook

We initiate coverage on Affle with a BUY rating and a target price of INR 2,280. We think, at CMP, the reward-risk is skewed 2:1 in favour of BUY.

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