Agri Picks Report January 16, 2024: Geojit

Geojit's report on Agri Picks

The US Department of Agriculture has reduced its estimate for global oilseed output for 2023-24 (May-Apr) to 660.18 mln tn, down 810,000 tn from 660.99 mln tn forecast in December. Production of oilseeds in the US in 2023-24 was seen higher by 920,000 tn from last month's estimate at 122.37 mln tn, the department said in its monthly report. The higher soybean production forecasts for Argentina, the US, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia are offset by lower Brazil production. The department has raised the US oilseed forecast due to higher production of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower seed crops. However, the increase in these three oilseeds was partly offset by lower production of peanuts and cottonseeds. Global ending stocks of oilseed in 2023-24 are pegged at 131.34 mln tn, down 350,000 tn from the estimate in December. The department has projected global soybean output at 399 mln tn, up 100,000 tn from the previous month as abundant early-season rainfall improved prospects of yield in Argentina and Paraguay. Production in Argentina and Paraguay increased by 2 mln tn to 50 mln tn and 300,000 tn to 10.3 mln tn, respectively, according to the report. However, Brazil's production of soybean in 2023-24 was seen lower by 4 mln tn from December at 157 mln tn, the USDA said in the report. "Reduced rainfall in the Center West region and northeastern states lowered yield potential," the report said. Brazil is the world's largest producer of soybean, followed by the US and Argentina. The department has kept the outlook for US soybean production at 113.34 mln tn, up 950,000 tn from the previous month's estimate. In 2023-24, soybean output in Argentina is projected at 50.0 mln tn, up 200,000 tn from last month. "Global soybean exports for 2023-24 have increased 700,000 tn to 170.9 mln tn with higher exports for Paraguay and Russia," said the report. Global ending stocks of soybean in 2023-24 are pegged at 114.6 mln tn, up 400,000 tn from last month's projection on higher stocks for the US and Argentina partly offset by lower Brazilian stocks. The US season-average soybean price forecast (for 2023-24) is unchanged at $12.75 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month, soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short tn, down $10, and soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents, the agency said in its report. The US government agency sees global soybean meal output in 2023-24 unchanged as higher exports for Argentina, India, and Bolivia offset lower Brazilian shipments. Soymeal is a derivative of soybean, manufactured by crushing oilseeds, and is mainly used in producing poultry feed.-

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