Agri Picks Report April 12, 2024: Geojit

Geojit's report on Daily Agri Picks

Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday projected southwest monsoon rainfall to be normal during tahe Jun-Sep season. India is likely to see rainfall to the tune of 102% of the long period average during the period, with an error margin of plus or minus 5%, it said in a report released today. However, the agency predicted a weak start tomonsoon this year due to El Nino effect, adding that these conditions may swiftly change into La Nina. The long period average for rainfall during the JunSep monsoon season is set at 868.8 mm for the country, according to the private weather forecaster. "The spread of normal is 96-104% of LPA (long period average)," it added. "El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, the monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years," Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, said in the report. "Also, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon." However, Singh said the start of monsoon this year may not be as good due to the remnant effects of El Nino over the country. "The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase (in terms of rainfall)," he added. ElNino, an abnormal warming of surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, is usually associated with lower rainfall in India, while La Nina brings more moisture and precipitation across the country. Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Departmenthad forecast a hotter-than-usual summer during Apr-Jun, and said the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to weaken and transition into La Nina conditions during the second half of the monsoon season. The government's weather bureau is yet to announce the date for its first forecast on the upcoming monsoon season.

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