Shares of National Fertilizer, Madras Fertilizers, GSFC and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers have gained 25-40 percent in the past one month on the back of heavy volumes generated by high-frequency trading firms.
Hrti Private Limited and Graviton Research Capital have been particularly active in these stocks on January 1 and 2, and previously on December 28, 6 and 4. These trades have pushed the 20-day average volume for these stocks from few thousands to lakhs.
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The heightened activity in fertiliser stocks also comes ahead of the Union Budget 2024. This is a general trend as the buzz around fertiliser subsidy gets stronger in the run-up to the Budget.
According to latest data, the total fertiliser subsidy during April-October was Rs 1.22 lakh crore, of which Rs 79,660.35 crore was spent on urea and Rs 43,315.28 crore on phosphorus (P) and potash (K).
According to a Kotak Institutional report, most fertilisers have seen single-digit rise in sales this fiscal and the India prices of ammonia, phosphoric acid and urea were down 15-30 percent as of December 22, 2023.
"In the crop markets, trends are mixed, with declining corn prices hurting farmer profitability, but climatic headwinds are creating uncertainty around output for numerous crops, including rice, wheat and palm oil," the Kotak report said.
So, the volume uptick in these shares have largely come on the back of high-frequency trading firms, which has attracted retail investors to other fertiliser stocks, too. For instance, Deepak Fertiliser is up 7 percent in the past month, GNFC is up 11 percent and Coromandel International is up over 6 percent.
All the stocks are trading above their 200-day simple moving average, indicating a bullish trend ahead.
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