Union Budget 2011-12 Expectations: Unicon Investment

Unicon Investment has come out with a report on Union Budget 2011-12 Expectations.

Expectations - Union Budget 2011-12

India was among the few countries in the world to implement a broad-based counter-cyclic policy package to respond to the negative fallout of the global slowdown. These policy actions has helped Indian Economy to clock a growth of 8.6% in FY11 (advance estimates). While rising strongly in the world economic order, India faces the most critical challenge of crossing the 'double digit growth barrier'. Current macroeconomic challenges are manifold 1. Controlling inflation, including that for essential commodities, 2. Maintaining fiscal deficit amongst rising oil prices, 3. Absence of one-time revenues such as 3G, WiMax license fees, 4. Allocation & channelising investment in Infrastructure, 5. Domestic financial sector liquidity management with large government borrowing can potentially be a dampener for private investments, 6. Reducing current account deficit from current elevated levels, 7. Over and above, handling corruption issues. The upcoming elections in some of the major states may prompt the government to continue to take some populist measures.

Union Budget 2011-12 - Focus on Agriculture & Infrastructure sector

On backdrop of higher inflation (supply side constraints), lower industrial growth & infrastructure investments, Union Budget 2011-12 is likely to undertake measures to ease such constraints in the form of reforms in Agriculture & Infrastructure sector.

A) Agriculture sector
1. Larger Investments in Agriculture sector,
2. Improvement in the Agri logistics & cold storage chains,
3. Steps towards reduction in essential commodities hoarding,
4. Investment in R&D in agriculture.
5. Irrigation and water management
6. Related to agri inputs

B) The lower growth in the industrial production last year is also likely to be addressed; to sustain the growth momentum and expand manufacturing base of the economy over medium term, the government is likely to look at addressing the challenges of land acquisition, infrastructure bottlenecks and infrastructure financing, among others. Besides agriculture, & infrastructure sector, power, rural electrification, education, logistic and rural oriented sectors will be the main focus of the budget, as it would be the main participants in the acceleration of GDP growth of country. In addition, we are likely to see relaxation of FDI norms further in Retail, Insurance and FDI procedures.

C) Inclusive agenda: After years of substantial expansion in the social sector spending, the government is likely to go relatively slower on its inclusive growth agenda, given limited fiscal headroom. No major change in the prevailing tax regime is expected; due to fears of a slower GDP growth in 2011-12. Moreover, any major tinkering in the indirect tax rates is unlikely as the government is targeting rollout of the integrated goods and service tax (GST) in a year. Similarly, changes in direct tax regime may be limited to aligning it with the upcoming direct tax code (DTC).

One of the problems is funding revenue expenditure through capital receipts and, thus, bringing in greater inter-generational inequalities. In the process, we run the risk of prioritising the immediate problems at the cost of our longer-term policy objectives (reforms and infrastructure creation). Unfortunately, we are, once again, likely to get stuck in addressing only the near-term problems in the coming budget too!

Capital Goods & Infrastructure: Infrastructure spending is the backbone of any economy especially in a developing country like India. With end of XI five year plan and missing targets, focus would remain on infra sector. Currently, the sector faces issues like higher commodity prices, higher funding cost and over and above slow pace of award win. At operational level difficulties are faced in obtaining several clearances for land, environment etc causing further delay in project execution and cost over run.

Given the recent reshuffling in the cabinet, low pace of award win activities and dismal IIP data over last couple of months, the thrust would be to accelerate the infrastructure spending and promote private participation to achieve inclusive growth of the economy. Emphasis would be towards higher infrastructure spending both from public and private participants in order to achieve higher GDP growth rate of 8.5%+. We expect higher fund allocation to various infrastructure development schemes (like Bharat Nirman, JNNURM, APDRP, RGGVY etc.) & focus on higher social spending benefitting construction and water & rural infrastructure taking front seat while allocation. Formalization of Public Private Partnership for Infra projects is also likely.

Cement: Cement industry currently faces multiple challenges both internal and external. On one hand, demand is moderating especially in the North region and muted to negative growth in Southern region, industry is also facing higher input and fuel costs. The situation was also aggravated due to hike in diesel prices, making transport cost (freight) dearer. With low demand in over supply regime, industry is unable to pass on the higher costs to end user thereby keeping their margin under pressure or voluntarily opt to keep volume low. Given the backdrop of Government thrust to accelerate economic growth, industry expectations are high to reduce excise duty on cement which in our view is unlikely.

With country's GDP pegged to grow ~8%+ annually going forward, cement industry is likely to grow in double digit over long term and outlook for demand remains positive. With a view to have inclusive growth of all sectors, emphasis would be to create demand for real estate sector with focus on affordable housing, Govt. led higher infra spending in the form of higher fund allocation and incentive for public private partnership (PPP) to keep robust demand for cement. Sector specific, we do not expect material changes.

Metals / Mining: Metal prices have been in an uptrend on the back of rising input costs. Recent disruption in coking coal and iron ore supply due to floods in Australia have been responsible for the rising prices of steel. Spot prices of 63.5 Fe grade iron ore have risen sharply from ~USD 125 / MT in July 2010 to ~USD 196 / MT currently. China coking coal prices have increased from ~USD 265 / MT in July 2010 to ~USD 320 / MT currently. This steep rise in input costs have resulted in compression of margins for non integrated players such as JSW Steel and SAIL while it has helped the integrated players such as Tata Steel and Jindal Steel & Power and mining companies like NMDC and Sesa Goa to improve their profitability.

Going forward we expect steel prices to remain firm on account of strong demand lead by recovering global economies. However we believe iron ore prices would come under pressure going forward on account of high inventory levels. Iron ore inventory in China's ports has reached 82.8 MT, record high in three years. With the resumption of supplies from Australia, prices of coking coal would also normalize from their highs. We believe this scenario would be positive for steel companies.

Oil & Gas: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates global oil demand at 89.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) for CY11, an increase of 1.4mb/d over CY10. Asia and the Middle East would account for a major portion of the increase with an expected rise in demand by 1 mb/d. Per capita consumption of energy in India is still one of the lowest in the world (around 0.3 tonnes of oil equivalent compared to world average of l .8). The rise in oil demand can be attributed to a buoyant economic recovery globally. To cater to this demand, IEA estimates OPEC supply at 29.9 mb/d, non-OPEC supply at 53.4mb/d and OPEC NGLs to contribute 5.8 mb/d in 2011.

With demand expected to remain strong we expect crude prices to remain high going forward which is negative for the sector, especially the downstream players. Uncertainty regarding subsidy continues to bleed the oil marketing companies. The three OMCs will end the fiscal with around INR 800 bn of revenue losses on selling diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene below cost, compared to ~INR 440 bn last year. The focus on laying of natural gas and gas transmission pipelines continues with transmission and distribution companies like GSPL, IGL, GAIL and GGCL having performed very well over the last year. With issue of coal availability, ramp up of KG basin production and government's thrust on cleaner fuels, natural gas business is expected to grow very rapidly.

Power: Investments in power transmission & distribution (T&D) are currently lagging behind compared to investments in power generation and are expected to play catch up in the coming years. Given the heavy investment (INR 8370 bn for XIth Plan) requirement in this sector, we believe that the thrust on spending will be maintained. We expect the incentives to continue and in a best case scenario, there could be some more positive surprises as well. Incase of customs duty exemption, there would be reduction in the cost of power generation which will help our economy at large besides encouraging more industries to come forward to set up power plants. All initiatives from industries to set up Independent, Merchant and Captive Power Plants are expected to be encouraged by Government of India. Focus of the budget is expected to be on improving the T&D infrastructure in the country & promoting renewable energy.

Auto: The budget last year had partially rolled back the stimulus provided to the auto players by increasing the excise duty to 10%. We may see a complete withdrawal of the stimulus with excise duties on two wheelers and small cars back to 12%. The auto industry has begun showing signs of a slowdown, imminent on the back of a high base due to strong growth last year on account of pent up demand post the recession. Increasing input costs, rising vehicle & crude prices, general inflationand an upward spiral in interest rates have also resulted in moderating the auto demand. Most auto majors have expressed their concerns and we expect the industry to grow at 10-12% in CY11 compared to 31% in CY10.

Textiles: Indian Textile industry contributes 14% of the total industrial output and 15% of exports. The Industry ranked second in terms of employement generation employing more than 35 mn people. The industry is going through major technology upgradtion to increase the productivity during the last few year to counter global competiton. The Government expects the industry numbers to triple by the next decade to USD 220 bn from the current USD 70 bn considering the rising demand from the western countries. With the US economy showing good signs of recovery, textile demand would increase at a rapid pace going forward. The textile industry with help from TUFs scheme has already modernised with a lot of textile majors now having integrated business models right from raw materials to garments. To further support the growth story of the industry there are favourable expectation from the union budget.

Paper: The Indian paper industry is currently passing through a very difficult phase due to high input cost of raw materials. Since the industry is highly fragmented in nature, it has not been able to take advantages economies of scale as has been the case with its global counterparts. As a result, production in India is very low at 14% compared to 60% in developed countries with high cost of production. Paper industry in India depends on import of waste paper for manufacture of paper/paperboards, as there is a huge shortage of the raw material domestically. We think the government will provide releif to the paper industry by reducing the customs duty on waste paper and pulp which would be positive for the paper companies.

FMCG: FMCG companies witnessed growth in volumes across product categories. However, rise in raw material costs took a toll on the operating margins across companies, with margins contracting by ~ 200 bps to 500 bps. The increasing competition among players also resulted in greater Advertising & Promotion (A&P) expenses of majority FMCG companies barring a few. The companies in this space either, have already taken price hikes during the quarter or are planning to rise prices to protect margins from erosion.

The recent correction in FMCG stocks has made them attractive, given the fact that underlying consumption story remains intact. Rural sector accounts for about 33% of sector

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