Gold is shining brighter than ever. Prices have yet again hit a new high, riding on global uncertainties, expectations of rate cuts and resilient investor demand. With the festival and wedding season, which gets underway in a few days, expected to push up demand further, should you buy the precious metal now or wait for the price to fall?
According to Manav Modi, analyst, Precious Metals Research, the rally has been exceptional. “Gold and silver have both seen a sharp run-up, with gold delivering more than 40 percent gains on a one-year basis. Silver, in fact, has outperformed gold in year-to-date terms,” he said.
Expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve rate cut this month and lingering uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to support gold. But the pace of this rally means investors need to be cautious. “Fundamentally, all pointers suggest further upside. However, since the rally has been quite stretched, some profit-booking is expected. For fresh buyers, I would recommend waiting for dips before entering,” Modi said.
On September 2, gold had a range-bound yet volatile session, posting a gain of $6 on Comex and Rs 200 on MCX , settling near $3,372 and Rs 100,850, respectively, said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst-commodity and currency, LKP Securities.
The market focus has shifted to the next week’s US unemployment data and non-farm payrolls, which, along with expectations of a Fed rate cut, are likely to keep gold supported.
Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war continue to add volatility. “Overall, gold maintains a positive bias, with an expected trading range of Rs 99,000–Rs 1,02,000,” Trivedi said.
Buy-on-dips strategy
Modi said levels matter. ““For gold, the downside zone of Rs 1,03,500-Rs 1,03,000 is a good accumulation zone. On the higher side, we see targets of Rs 1,08,000-Rs 1,09,000 . For silver, Rs 1,18,000 remains a strong buying zone, with revised targets of Rs 1,30,000-1,35,000,” he said.
Investors who already hold gold may consider partial profit-booking and re-enter at lower levels. “If it’s a long-term holding, one can hold on or book partially and accumulate again when prices ease. For fresh buyers, patience will pay,” Modi said.
Festive season buyers
For households looking to buy jewellery during the festival season, timing is tricky. “Even at higher levels, jewellers are reporting demand,” Modi said. “But since gold is at elevated prices, it makes sense to wait for a small correction—say Rs 1,000–Rs 1,500 from current levels—before making a purchase.”
What could trigger a dip? Profit-booking isn’t the only factor that could cool prices. Global data, especially from the US labour market, and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting would be the key drivers.
“Gold and interest rates have an inverse relationship. If the Fed cuts rates in September, as is increasingly expected, gold could rally further. But if labour market data remains tight, we may see some ease-off in prices,” Modi said.
Gold remains in a long-term uptrend, supported by global monetary trends, geopolitical risks, and investor flows.
Both gold and silver are poised for further upside but the best approach is buy on dips not chase at peaks.
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