The market easily wiped out the previous week's gains in a single day, declining 1.3 percent and finally testing the August low on November 4, forming a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, which indicates weakness. If the index sustains below the psychological 24,000 mark, the next downside target to watch is 23,500, which coincides with the 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). On the upside, 24,200–24,300 may act as a hurdle. The Bank Nifty needs to hold above 51,000 for a rebound towards the 51,700 zone; if it falls below, the immediate downside target is 50,800, followed by 50,500, experts say.
On Monday, the Nifty 50 closed at 23,995, down 309 points, while the Bank Nifty plunged 459 points or 0.9 percent to 51,215, with negative market breadth. About 2,006 shares fell, while 581 shares advanced on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart
The Nifty index is struggling to hold above the 24,000 level, with immediate support at the 23,800–23,900 range. A breach below this could lead to a test of the 200-day EMA at around 23,500. Above 24,000, resistance looms at the 24,500 cluster of the 100-day moving averages, which could trigger a short-covering rally if surpassed.
Key Resistance: 24,000, 24,500
Key Support: 23,800, 23,500
Strategy: Consider selling on a rise near 24,000–24,500, with a stop-loss at 24,600, targeting 23,500.
Rohan Shah, Technical Analyst at Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates
The Nifty started the week on a sluggish note. Technically, in the last month, the Nifty has shown a breakdown from a trend reversal pattern, specifically a Head & Shoulders pattern. Additionally, it has slipped below the 38.2 percent retracement level of its prior rally from the election lows and is trading below key moving averages (20, 50, and 100-day averages), indicating weakness in the trend.
The ongoing correction in the index is broad-based, with key sectors like Auto, Energy, and Oil & Gas breaking important support levels, highlighting a potential shift in sentiment towards a 'sell on rise' strategy. We expect this weakness to persist, and any bounce towards resistance levels should be utilized as a fresh selling opportunity. Looking ahead, the index is expected to test its long-term moving average, currently placed around the 23,500 level.
Key Resistance: 24,425, 24,700
Key Support: 23,500, 23,300
Strategy: Sell on a bounce near 24,400–24,500, with a stop-loss above 24,850, targeting 23,500.
Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio
The Nifty is trading in a bearish setup, forming a lower high and lower low pattern along with a rounding top on the daily chart, signaling strong control by the bears. The index has breached a critical support level at 24,000; a sustained break below this level could invite further selling pressure. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is nearing the oversold region, indicating weakening momentum. Collectively, these factors point to a shift towards negative sentiment, suggesting potential for additional downside in the near term.
Key Resistance: 24,000, 24,200
Key Support: 23,700, 23,500
Strategy: Sell around 24,000 with a stop-loss of 24,150, targeting 23,700.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart
The Bank Nifty index is showing relative strength, with immediate demand in the 51,300–51,000 zone. Below this, support lies at 50,400 and 49,600 (200-DMA). On the upside, 52,500–53,000 is a critical supply area, and a breakout here could set the stage for a rally towards its all-time high.
Key Resistance: 51,800, 51,300
Key Support: 51,000, 50,400
Strategy: Consider selling on a rise near 51,600–51,500, with a stop-loss of 51,800, targeting 50,400.
Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio
The Bank Nifty continued to consolidate within a defined range of 50,500 to 52,500, with a breakout beyond this level needed to confirm a new directional trend. The RSI is positioned near the midline, which supports the ongoing rangebound movement. Additionally, the index is trading close to its major EMAs, reinforcing the view that consolidation is likely to persist within this range for now.
Key Resistance: 51,500, 52,000
Key Support: 51,000, 50,500
Strategy: Sell 52,000 Call and 50,500 Put for the monthly expiry.
Rohan Shah, Technical Analyst at Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates
Amid ongoing market volatility, the banking index has so far managed to defend its key support zone, though it has struggled to generate strong momentum. From a technical perspective, the index remains within an upsloping channel, consistently holding above the 100-day EMA. On several occasions in the past, it has formed tradable bottoms around the 100-day MA and near the lower end of the channel. Therefore, we expect that a decisive break below the 50,800 zone could trigger fresh selling momentum. Otherwise, we anticipate that the index will continue to exhibit rangebound price action.
Key Resistance: 51,700, 52,200
Key Support: 50,800, 49,809
Strategy: Sell below 50,800 for a downside target of 49,800–49,500, with a stop-loss above 51,300.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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