Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 hold August low, Bank Nifty defend 53,500 amid expected rangebound trading?

The technical outlook for the market appears gloomy, with the Nifty 50 index currently positioned below the 100-DEMA. This positioning suggests a bearish trend, characterized by the formation of lower lows, indicating a persistent decline in prices. Moreover, the index is positioned just a short distance from the recent swing low in the 24,350 zone, signalling potential further downside risk if this level is breached. Additionally, the current biases suggest a bearish outlook, underscored by a consistent presence of bears in the Advance-Decline metrics observed throughout the week.

As far as levels are concerned, any breakdown below 24,350 (confluence of swing low and the bullish gap) may negatively impact the near-term outlook, thereby opening potential movement toward the 24,150–24,100 zone (200 DSMA) in the comparable period. On the higher end, a series of resistances could be seen from the 24,600 to 24,800 zone, with a view of lightening long positions on bounces. For now, it is advisable to refrain from placing aggressive bets on either side and wait for market stability.

Key Resistance: 24,600, 24,800

Key Support: 24,350, 24,150

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,350, with a stop-loss of 24,280 and book profits near 24,700–24,800.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty ended the week with a loss of 443 points and formed a long bearish candle on the weekly chart, with a lower high-low compared to the previous week, indicating weakness at current levels. The index is approaching a horizontal support of 24,350. A breakdown below this level could open downside till 24,071 (200-day SMA). For a positive trend reversal, the index must close above 24,702 (20-day SMA).

The chart structure indicates that a sustained move above 24,500 may attract buying interest, driving the index towards 24,700–25,000, while a breakdown below 24,350 could intensify selling pressure, dragging it towards 24,150–23,900. For the week, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 25,000–23,900 with a negative bias. The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line, indicating a negative bias.

Key Resistance: 24,600, 24,800

Key Support: 24,300, 24,100

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 24,650 with a stop-loss of 24,750, targeting 24,300–24,200.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

As highlighted last week, a close below 24,850 would confirm a breakdown — and Nifty has followed through, ending at 24,425. Immediate support now lies at the August lows of 24,337.5, which is likely to be tested in the coming week. A sustained breach below this level could open the door for a sharper decline toward 23,800.

On the contrary, a quick sweep of 24,300 may trigger short covering, as FII longs remain below 10% — a zone that has historically marked short-term bottoms. Our view is that 24,300 will hold as protected support, setting the stage for a bounce.

Any rebound will face stiff resistance in the 24,700–24,760 zone, and only a decisive move above this band would extend the rally further.

Key Resistance: 24,700, 24,760

Key Support: 24,338, 24,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,337–24,300 with a stop-loss below 24,200 for a target of 24,700.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The technical structure of Bank Nifty has further deteriorated, with prices breaking below the crucial swing lows in the 54,900–55,000 band, which also aligned with the 20WEMA. As highlighted in our prior commentary, sellers decisively gained control of the index, and that view appears to have played out.

Going forward, the outlook remains bearish, as there are no signs of a trend reversal yet. That said, oversold technical indicators, along with the formation of a Gravestone Doji on the daily chart and the presence of a strong support zone in the 53,500–53,300 band (a prior resistance, now likely to act as support), suggest the possibility of a near-term bounce.

Considering this backdrop, any rallies into resistance zones — first at 54,050–54,150, followed by the stronger resistance in the 54,700–54,900 zone — can be utilized to consider venturing into short opportunities. On the flip side, sustained trade below the 53,500–53,300 support zone could accelerate downside momentum further, opening the possibility of a retest of sub-52,000 levels.

Key Resistance: 54,150, 54,900

Key Support: 53,300, 53,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 53,300, with a stop-loss of 53,000, for a potential target of 54,700.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed the week with a sharp loss of 1,494 points. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a long bearish candle with a lower high-low and closed below the prior week’s low, confirming weakness at current levels. The index is now approaching the May 2025 low of 53,483. A breakdown below this support could open further downside, while holding above it may trigger a short-lived relief rally.

The chart structure indicates that a sustained move above 54,000 could invite buying interest, lifting the index towards 54,500–55,000. Conversely, a breach below 53,500 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, dragging the index towards 52,900–52,500. For the coming week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the 55,000–52,500 band with a negative bias. The weekly RSI remains in negative territory and below its reference line, reaffirming the bearish undertone.

Key Resistance: 53,800, 54,000

Key Support: 53,450, 53,200

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 53,900, with a stop-loss of 54,100, targeting 53,400–53,200.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

As anticipated, Bank Nifty broke below the crucial 54,900 support and has already tested a low of 53,606.45. The structure on both daily and weekly charts is now firmly bearish, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. With momentum pointing lower, the index appears headed toward the 53,100–52,800 zone, where the 50-week and yearly moving averages converge.

We believe the 53,000 area could act as a strong accumulation zone for a meaningful bounce. On the upside, any recovery will face supply pressure around 54,400–55,200, while only a sustained close above this band would ease bearish momentum.

Key Resistance: 54,400, 55,200

Key Support: 53,100, 52,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 53,000 with a stop-loss below 52,700, targeting 54,400.

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