The Nifty 50 saw a pullback on profit booking, but the trend is still in favour of bulls. If the index manages to hold the 25,250–25,150 zone amid likely consolidation, the new leg of strength may drive the index beyond 25,500 and then 25,700. However, a decisive move below it can open the door for bears, who can drag the index down to 25,000–24,900. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to take support in the 55,200–55,000 zone, while resistance is placed at 55,800. A move above this level may lead to a new leg of the upmove, experts said.
On September 19, the Nifty 50 declined 97 points to 25,327, while the Bank Nifty was down 269 points to 55,459, with negative market breadth. About 1,421 shares saw a correction against 1,352 shares that saw buying interest on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One
On the technical front, the Nifty confirmed a strong “Double Bottom” breakout on the daily chart by surpassing the August swing high and the 61.8% retracement around 25,150. This formation has opened upside potential towards the June swing high of 25,670, which serves as the measured target of the pattern.
Friday’s mild decline was largely due to prices approaching a key trendline resistance (connecting the all-time high and June swing high), alongside intraday indicators slipping into overbought territory. Despite this pause, the undertone remains firmly positive, and any dip or consolidation should be viewed as healthy for the next leg of the rally.
In this setup, the 25,200–25,100 zone (breakout level) now acts as a strong support base. On the flip side, the 25,450–25,500 band, coinciding with the trendline resistance, is the immediate hurdle, followed by the June swing high at 25,670. A decisive breakout beyond this zone would open the path toward new all-time highs.
Key Resistance: 25,450, 25,550
Key Support: 25,200, 25,100
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dip around 25,200, with a stop-loss of 25,080, targeting 25,550–25,650.
Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities
The Nifty settled the last week with a 213-point gain. On the weekly chart, the index formed a long bullish candle with a higher high and low structure, closing above the previous week's high, which reinforces a positive bias. Significantly, the index broke out of the consolidation zone between 25,250 and 24,350, indicating strength and opening up the possibility of reaching the next resistance level at 25,700 to 26,000. On the downside, 25,000 remains a key support level.
Chart patterns suggest that a decisive move above 25,500 could lead to further buying, pushing the index towards 25,700 to 26,000. Conversely, a break below 25,250 may invite selling pressure, potentially dragging the index lower to 25,000 to 24,800.
For the current week, we expect Nifty to trade within the range of 26,000 to 24,800 with a positive bias. The weekly RSI remains above its reference line, confirming the bullish momentum.
Key Resistance: 25,400, 25,550
Key Support: 25,250, 25,100
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 25,250 with a stop-loss of 25,100, targeting 25,450–25,500.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments
Nifty has finally tested the weekly order block at 25,331 and is now retracing back toward the breakout point at 24,246. Just below this, the 25,200 zone will act as a major support for bulls, with the 10-day EMA also placed in this range, making it a key demand area.
We expect the initial two days of the week to see a pullback into this major support zone. From there, fresh buying and momentum are likely to emerge, putting bulls back in control. Post this healthy correction, Nifty should resume its uptrend, forming fresh swing highs and heading towards the 25,550 zone.
Momentum indicators remain supportive and are not yet overheated, but price has stretched away from the 10-day EMA — making this pullback a constructive reset before the next leg higher.
Key Resistance: 25,400, 25,520
Key Support: 25,246, 25,000
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips in the major support zone at 25,246–25,200 for an upside of 25,500, with a stop-loss below 25,190.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One
While the winning run continues, the current price placement warrants caution, making aggressive long positions less advisable at this juncture. The heavyweight index is now approaching the 50%–61.8% retracement zone of its downswing from the 57,630-odd levels — a region that has historically acted as sturdy resistance.
Further adding to the overhead supply pressure is the presence of a prior swing high in the 56,000–56,150 band. That said, there are still no signs of reversal or exhaustion in the ongoing up move, and adopting a buy-on-dips strategy near support zones could remain profitable.
In terms of levels, immediate support lies in the 55,200–55,000 band, aligning with the 50 and 20 DEMA, while on the flip side, immediate resistance is seen around 55,850–55,900, followed by a stronger hurdle near 56,200.
Key Resistance: 55,700, 55,850
Key Support: 55,200, 55,000
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dip around 55,300, with a stop-loss of 54,950, targeting 56,000 / 56,200.
Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities
Bank Nifty finished the week with a 650-point gain. On the weekly chart, it has formed a bullish candle with higher highs and lows, closing above the previous week's high, which confirms a positive outlook. The index is showing strong support at 53,500 and has closed above the crucial resistance level of 55,200. For the upcoming week, a positive follow-through will be essential to maintain the uptrend.
The chart setup suggests that if it moves above 55,800, it may trigger new buying activity, potentially pushing the index towards the range of 56,000 to 56,500. Conversely, a drop below 55,000 could lead to selling pressure, pulling the index down towards 54,800 to 54,500.
For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the range of 56,500 to 54,500, with a mixed bias. Additionally, the weekly RSI has turned positive from the 50 mark, indicating a favourable bias.
Key Resistance: 55,600, 55,800
Key Support: 55,250, 55,100
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 55,350 with a stop-loss of 55,100, targeting 55,650–55,800.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments
Bank Nifty has invalidated the bearish fair value area — a strong signal that bulls are back in the driver’s seat. This sets the stage for a high-momentum rally in the sessions ahead. However, the recent surge has been too sharp, too fast, suggesting the index now needs a brief period of consolidation, likely 5 days or so, along with a pullback driven by profit booking.
On such a retracement, supports are well-placed in the 55,100–54,900 zone, from where fresh buying interest should emerge. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the quarterly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) around 55,900, which could temporarily cap gains.
Momentum indicators hint at a minor pullback first, followed by a strong, high-velocity rally that could eventually propel the index towards new all-time highs.
Key Resistance: 55,900, 56,500
Key Support: 55,100, 54,900
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips to 55,100–54,900 for an upside of 55,900–56,500, with a stop-loss below 54,800.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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