The primary trend of the Nifty 50 remained northward despite a recent small correction and consolidation. Hence, if the index stays above 25,060 (previous day’s low), it may attempt an upmove toward the 25,200–25,300 zone. Above this, 25,400–25,500 are the levels to watch. However, a move below 25,060 can drag the index down toward 24,950 (50-day EMA). Meanwhile, given the strong technical setup of the Bank Nifty, the index may march toward 56,800–57,000 in the upcoming sessions. Support is placed at 56,200, followed by 55,800, according to experts.
On October 14, the Nifty 50 dropped 82 points to 25,146, while the Bank Nifty declined 129 points to 56,496. The market breadth remained weak. A total of 2,117 shares were supported by bears, against 713 shares aided by bulls on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities
The weakness was more pronounced in the broader market: Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices closed on a distinctly weak note, ending the day by forming a bearish "Engulfing" candlestick pattern on the daily charts.
Despite this broad-market selling, the primary trend for the Nifty remains technically up, as it successfully held above its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (DEMA). Immediate support is now seen in the 25,000–25,050 band, while 25,310 and 25,400 will act as key overhead resistance levels.
Positionally, the Nifty is still in a consolidation trend between 24,500–25,500. The downward-sloping trendline, adjoining previous swing highs of 25,669 and 25,448, projects strong resistance near the 25,400 level. A decisive move above 25,400 is likely to mark the end of the consolidation phase and the resumption of the long-term uptrend. However, any level below 24,500 would lead to a medium-term bearish phase.
Key Resistance: 25,448, 25,669
Key Support: 25,000, 24,500
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near 25,050, with a stop-loss at 24,800, targeting 25,440.
Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta
The Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily timeframe. Despite the intraday weakness, the Nifty found support near the 20-day moving average (20-DMA) and continues to trade within its upward-sloping channel, indicating that the broader trend remains structurally positive.
The daily RSI, currently positioned at 55.08, has turned slightly bearish, suggesting a temporary pause or consolidation in the ongoing uptrend.
The options chain data indicates a simultaneous build-up in in-the-money (ITM) Calls and ITM Puts, reflecting a neutral to range-bound sentiment among market participants. This suggests that the index may continue to consolidate within a narrow range before the next directional move.
Key Resistance: 25,206, 25,320
Key Support: 25,050, 25,000
Strategy: A short-term buy-on-dips approach is recommended. Buy Nifty Futures near 25,100, with a stop-loss at 25,050, targeting 25,200.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities
The Bank Nifty has been one of the best-performing sectoral indices in the market recently. The technical setup of the index is relatively stronger than the Nifty. The index is holding above all key moving averages, which indicates an uptrend across all timeframes. The index is likely to outperform the broader markets in the near term.
A couple of weeks back, the index broke out from a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, which projects healthy upside from the current levels.
Key Resistance: 56,800, 57,628
Key Supports: 55,835, 55,000
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 56,400, with a stop-loss at 55,835, targeting 56,800.
Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta
The Bank Nifty experienced initial selling pressure but rebounded sharply during the session, finding strong support near the 40-EMA (55,157) on the hourly chart. This recovery highlights continued resilience in the index despite early weakness.
The daily RSI at 64.45 remains comfortably above its signal line, suggesting sustained bullish momentum and potential for further upside in the near term. On the derivatives front, unwinding in ITM Calls and Puts points to a temporary lack of strong directional conviction among market participants.
Key Resistance: 56,550, 56,800
Key Support: 56,300
Strategy: Traders may consider initiating long positions in Bank Nifty Futures near 56,400, aiming for targets of 56,600 and 56,800, while maintaining a stop-loss at 56,300.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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