The sentiment remained favourable for bears with weakness in technical and momentum indicators, while the Nifty managed to close above 24,600 for the third session. If the index manages to hold above it, the chances of the index moving toward 24,700–24,900 are high, but closing decisively below it can open the door for 24,500, being a crucial support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to close above 54,800 (the previous day’s high and midline of Bollinger Bands) for an upward journey toward 55,000–55,100, but sustaining below it, the index may consolidate with 54,200 as support, experts said.
On September 30, the Nifty 50 slipped 24 points to 24,611, while the Bank Nifty rose 175 points to 54,636. The market breadth remained subdued, with about 1,522 shares declining compared to 1,242 advancing shares on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Subash Gangadharan, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities
The Nifty remains in a short-term downtrend as it has been consistently making lower tops and lower bottoms for the last two weeks. Momentum readings like the 14-day RSI are also in decline mode and not yet oversold, implying potential for more downsides.
We expect more downsides once the immediate supports of 24,606–24,587 are broken. Downside targets in this scenario are at 24,533 and 24,402. Our bearish view would turn wrong if the Nifty climbs higher and takes out the recent high of 24,869.
Key Resistance: 24,792, 24,869
Key Support: 24,587, 24,533
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures between 24,636–24,700, with a stop-loss of 24,869, targeting 24,400–24,200.
Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
Nifty is making lower highs and lower lows over the past eight consecutive trading sessions, which is for the first time since February 2025, and the index has fallen nearly 3.4 percent since the September high, which suggests underperformance compared to the Bank Nifty.
Also, since September 19, not a single candle has closed above the prior day’s high, highlighting the intensity of the fall. Prices are now trading near the important trendline support, which is situated near the 24,570–24,580 levels. A decisive break below it is now required for further selling to continue, which can drift prices lower toward the prior swing low near the 24,400 levels.
In the prior session, the Nifty was moving in a minor range of 24,580–24,750 levels. A break below 24,580 is required for fresh selling to emerge, while a break above 24,750 can result in short-term pullbacks toward the 24,850–24,875 levels.
Key Resistance: 24,875
Key Support: 24,400
Strategy: Short positions can be created below 24,580 with a stop-loss of 24,680 and a target of 24,480 followed by 24,400 levels.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Subash Gangadharan, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities
Bank Nifty, too, is in a downtrend as the index has been making lower tops and lower bottoms for the last two weeks. With the index trading below the key moving averages and momentum indicators like the 14-day RSI in decline mode and not oversold, the index could fall further.
Key Resistance: 54,897, 55,040
Key Support: 54,310, 54,226
Strategy: One can sell Bank Nifty Futures at CMP of 54,696 with a stop-loss of 55,100 and a downside target of 53,800.
Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
For the past 8–9 trading sessions, Bank Nifty has been drifting lower day by day and has retraced more than 61.8% of the prior rising leg that started at the beginning of September 2025. Also, the index has been closing below the 100 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for the past 3 trading sessions. In this fall, private banks were the major laggards.
For now, a close above the 20-day EMA resistance, which is near 54,900 levels, is required for any short covering to trigger. For this to happen, support from private banks is required. Until that happens, the overall tone remains negative. Today is going to be an important event as the RBI is likely to announce the monetary policy update in the first half of the session. It will affect overall market sentiments.
Overall, Bank Nifty still looks weak. A break below 54,500 can accelerate further selling pressure toward the 54,180 levels. On the upside, a daily close above 54,900 can be an early sign of a trend change.
Key Resistance: 54,900
Key Support: 54,180
Strategy: Short positions can be created below 54,500 with a stop-loss of 54,700 and a target of 54,300 followed by 54,180 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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