Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 extend its fall for fourth day, Bank Nifty decisively surpass 55,600?

The upside momentum in Nifty witnessed a roadblock at the crucial overhead resistance of 25,500 levels recently, and the market slipped into a healthy downward correction in the last few sessions. The weakness over the last three sessions seems to be ending near the crucial support of 25,000–25,100 levels in the short term. The overall long-term chart pattern, like the weekly chart, indicates a buy-on-dips opportunity in the market. Any sustainable bounce back from here could pull Nifty towards the hurdle of 25,500 levels in the near term. Immediate support is to be watched around 25,000.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,750

Key Support: 25,100, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty October Futures near 25,400, with a stop-loss of 25,200, targeting 25,700.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Nifty remained under pressure for the past 3 days and has not closed above the prior day’s high, suggesting weakness in the index. Prices have retraced almost 38.2% of the prior rally that started at the beginning of September 2025. In this profit booking, the IT sector was the major dragger post-H1B visa rules.

For now, a break back above 25,350 is required for the uptrend to resume. On the downside, a break below 25,050 levels can extend profit booking towards 24,930, which is the 50% retracement area and also happens to be a mid-Bollinger Bands support. Now we are entering into the last week of the month, which is also the monthly F&O expiry, so volatility is expected to be higher.

Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 25,050–25,350 levels with wild swings on both sides. A break of the said range in either direction will set the tone for the week.

Key Resistance: 25,350

Key Support: 24,890

Strategy: Short positions can be created if Nifty gives a 15-minute close below 25,050 with a stop-loss of 25,150 and a target of 24,950 followed by 24,890 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

On the daily timeframe, Nifty formed a bearish candle. The index has broken down from the upward-moving channel and is now trending within a downward-sloping channel, marked by a lower-high, lower-low formation — suggesting a short-term bearish bias.

The daily RSI at 56.7 has slipped below its signal line, reflecting waning momentum and scope for further selling. Immediate support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 25,050, drawn from the September 18 high (25,448) to the August 29 low (24,404).

The options chain also indicates weakness, with unwinding in ITM Puts, signalling reduced bullish sentiment.

Key Resistance: 25,261, 25,331

Key Support: 25,050, 24,950

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures near the cash price of 25,261 for a target of 25,050 with a stop-loss of 25,331.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Bank Nifty has bounced back firmly on Tuesday after a short-term downward correction of a few sessions. The banking sector has moved up from near the immediate support of the 10/20-day EMA. The low of Tuesday at 55,160 could be considered a new higher bottom of the bullish chart pattern, like higher tops and bottoms. Hence, one may expect further upside from here in the short term. The next upside targets to be watched are around 55,900 and then 56,500 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 55,000 levels.

Key Resistance: 55,900, 56,500

Key Support: 55,150, 54,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty October Futures near 56,050, with a stop-loss of 55,800, targeting 56,600.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

For the past 3 days, Bank Nifty witnessed profit booking, and prices found support near the 50-day EMA. In the prior session, we saw a relief rise of more than 400 points from it. Despite 3 days of profit booking, the PSU banking sector has outperformed Bank Nifty by making fresh highs for the past 5 consecutive days.

In the previous session, prices protected the prior candle’s low on the hourly chart, suggesting buying from lower levels. For now, the index needs participation from major Private Banks to resume the up move.

A break above 55,700 levels is required for the trend to change back to the upside, which can push prices higher towards the 56,000 mark. On the downside, 55,200 should remain protected on a closing basis. A daily close below it will be a sign of concern.

Key Resistance: 56,000

Key Support: 55,200

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 55,700 with a stop-loss of 55,550 and a target of 55,850 followed by 56,000 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty witnessed selling pressure in the initial hour but staged a smart recovery intraday, taking support at the 40-EMA (55,157) on the daily chart. Additional major support is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 54,966, drawn from the September 18 high (55,835) to the September 3 low (53,561).

The daily RSI at 57.6 remains above its signal line, signalling bullish momentum with potential for further upside. On the derivatives side, unwinding in ITM Calls indicates strengthening bullish sentiment.

Key Resistance: 55,688, 55,835

Key Support: 55,234, 55,157

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash price of 55,454 for a target of 55,688 followed by 55,835 with a stop-loss of 55,234.

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