Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 defend 25,000, Bank Nifty reclaim 55,000 amid consolidation?

Nifty started this week with a negative close, thus breaking the 8-day winning streak. The base has shifted higher from 24,600 to 24,800 levels now, and the immediate support is at 25,000 levels. The immediate resistance is at 25,100, and beyond that, the index is likely to inch toward 25,250, which is the previous swing high. Above 25,250 levels, there is no major hurdle; hence, it will lead to a major breakout above those levels.

The options data indicates that the bulls have an upper hand as the PCR (Put-Call Ratio) is at 1.03. The 25,000 strike has the highest Put base, and the 25,100 strike has the highest Call base. So, a breakout from this 100-point range will lead to a further directional trend.

FIIs, on the last day of the previous week, bought marginally in the equity cash segment, bringing some relief to their selling pressure. They also reduced short positions in the index, which too is positive in the near term. The India VIX has gone sideways at 10.40 levels, indicating that not much movement is likely in the index. However, the IVs (Implied Volatility) have fallen below 10, with IVP and IVR at 2.80 and 3.70 respectively, which is at the lower extreme—indicating that a spike in IVs can’t be ruled out. So, there may be some intraday, weekly expiry-related volatility.

So, the short-term view is positive in anticipation of short covering; however, one needs to be cautiously bullish unless a complete trend reversal happens.

Key Resistance: 25,100, 25,250

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,000 or above 25,100, with a stop-loss below 24,900, targeting 25,250.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Currently, Nifty is trading well above the 50 and 100 DEMA, which signals strength in the broader trend. On the daily chart, the previous swing high lies at 25,154, while the last close was just below this level, suggesting possible resistance. Short-term exhaustion signs are visible near 25,100–25,050, creating a hurdle for further upside.

Additionally, the hourly MACD is showing negative divergence, reinforcing weakness at higher levels. Given these signals, a pullback toward 24,850 cannot be ruled out. The overall setup remains cautious, and sustained strength will only be seen once Nifty decisively moves above 25,150.

Key Resistance: 25,150, 25,200

Key Support: 24,900, 24,800

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures in the 25,150–25,250 zone, with a stop-loss of 25,350, targeting 24,900.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty did close in the positive territory for the day and outperformed the Nifty. However, it could not manage to close beyond the 55,000 level, which is a short-term concern, as 55,000 is an immediate resistance with the highest Call base in the near term.

The PCR is at 1.01, just above 1, which is positive. However, the index needs to take out the 55,000 level and close above the same for further upward momentum. The Nifty PSU banks have witnessed short covering; however, the private sector banks are yet to witness aggressive short covering. So, the short-term trend is positive until 54,000 levels are held. Beyond 55,000 levels, it can inch straight to 56,000–56,200, retesting its previous swing.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,500

Key Support: 54,500, 54,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 55,000, with a stop-loss of 54,500, targeting 55,500 and 56,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Bank Nifty has witnessed an impressive rally of nearly 1,500 points over the last two weeks after establishing a base near the 200 DEMA. However, at the current juncture, the index is encountering resistance around the 50 DEMA. On the hourly chart, a bearish divergence on the MACD histogram has emerged near the 55,000 level, which coincides with a key resistance zone. This signals the possibility of a near-term pullback toward 54,500.

The broader structure remains cautious, and a clear breakout above 55,000 will be essential to confirm sustained momentum and open the path for further upside.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,300

Key Support: 54,500, 54,300

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures in the 55,200–55,100 zone, with a stop-loss of 55,400, targeting 54,700.

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