The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty both extended their downtrend for the third consecutive session with a continuation of the lower highs–lower lows formation on July 28. Overall, the trend is still down , but given that the PCR has approached oversold territory, a rebound may also be possible. On the higher side, the 24,800–24,900 zone can act as a hurdle, whereas on the lower side, the 24,600–24,550 area can offer support, as a move below it may strengthen the bears. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty breaks 56,000, then 55,800 is the level to watch, followed by 55,500. However, holding above 56,000 could drive the index toward 56,500, according to experts.
On July 28, the Nifty 50 corrected 156 points (0.63 percent) to 24,681, while the Bank Nifty dropped 444 points (0.79 percent) to 56,085, with weakening market breadth. A total of 2,043 shares were down against 673 rising shares on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities
Nifty has been trading with a negative bias, and as anticipated, the rise in IVs (implied volatility) has created selling pressure in the markets. The same has happened as expected. Now, on the lower side, 24,600 is an immediate support level, as Nifty had taken multiple supports at this level during the previous downtrend. The PCR (Put-Call Ratio) has fallen to 0.53, thus approaching an oversold territory well ahead of the expiry.
The IVs have started to rise, indicating volatile times ahead at least until the expiry. The index has broken its crucial support of 24,800, which is the maximum pain level. The index is also trading well below its 20-day VWAP (volume-weighted average price) level of 25,360, so until these resistance levels are taken out, the overall trend remains sideways to negative. Since IVs have started to rise, a short-term bounce can’t be ruled out either.
Key Resistance: 24,800, 25,000
Key Support: 24,600, 24,500
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures at CMP and on rise near 24,800, with a stop-loss above 25,000, targeting 24,500 and, below that, 24,300.
Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
Technically, the 100-day exponential moving average (DEMA) now aligns with the bullish trendline, suggesting potential base formation in the 24,600–24,700 zone over the coming sessions. Adding strength to this view, the daily RSI stands near 37—an area that has historically offered support since March 2025. With the long-short ratio at a low 14 percent as of July 28, short-covering could trigger a near-term rebound.
Key Resistance: 24,900, 25,000
Key Support: 24,600, 24,500
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 24,600–24,700 zone, with a stop-loss of 24,450, targeting 25,100.
Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital
On the weekly chart, the Nifty has been forming a lower high–lower low pattern for the past five weeks, highlighting a persistent bearish undertone in the market. On the daily chart, the index has broken below an upward-sloping trendline and is now trading below its 50-day EMA (24,940), indicating weakness. Additionally, the RSI is trending downward and remains below the 40 mark, confirming the prevailing bearish momentum.
Key Resistance: 25,000, 25,300
Key Support: 24,000, 24,200
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rise near 24,800 for a target of 24,200 and 24,000, with a stop-loss of 25,000.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities
Bank Nifty too has been trading with a negative bias, and there have been aggressive Call additions from the 56,000 to 57,000 strikes, indicating that Call writers have the upper hand. The PCR is at 0.60, which also indicates that bears have an upper hand in the near term.
The index is trading below its maximum pain level of 56,500 as well as below its 20-day VWAP level of 57,034, which indicates weakness in the near term. Now, 56,000 is an immediate support, and below that, the next major support levels will be 55,500 to 55,000. However, the immediate resistance on the upside is at 56,500, and beyond that, 57,000.
Key Resistance: 56,500, 57,000
Key Support: 56,000, 55,500
Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures below 56,000, with a target of 55,500 and 55,000, and a stop-loss of 56,600.
Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
Technically, the 50-day exponential moving average (DEMA) now aligns with the bullish trendline, indicating a potential base formation in the 55,800–56,000 zone over the next few sessions. Supporting this view, the daily RSI stands at 43—close to the historically strong support zone observed since March 2025. This confluence of technical factors suggests possible consolidation before a directional move.
Key Resistance: 56,600, 56,800
Key Support: 56,000, 55,800
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,150–56,000 zone, with a stop-loss of 55,650, targeting 57,000.
Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital
On the daily chart, the Bank Nifty has broken below its upward-sloping trendline, signaling emerging weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending downward and remains below the 45 mark, further reinforcing the bearish undertone of the index.
Key Resistance: 57,000, 57,600
Key Support: 55,700, 54,500
Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures below 55,700 for a target of 54,500 and 53,500, with a stop-loss of 56,200.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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