The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty rebounded after a three-day correction, with the former index outperforming the latter. Despite the bounce back, the Nifty 50 still showed a lower highs–lower lows formation and traded below short- and medium-term moving averages. Hence, consolidation may continue as long as the index trades below the 24,950 zone (immediate resistance), with key support at 24,600. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to sustain above the 55,800 support for an upward move toward 56,600–56,700; however, below 55,800, the bears may gain strength, according to experts.
On July 29, the Nifty 50 climbed 140 points (0.57 percent) to 24,821, while the Bank Nifty advanced 137 points to 56,222, with market breadth turning favourable for the bulls. About 1,744 shares saw buying interest compared to 916 shares that declined on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities
The negative chart pattern of lower tops and bottoms remains intact, and the swing low of Tuesday at 24,598 could be considered a new lower bottom in the sequence. However, the bullish candle pattern of Tuesday could be a cheering factor for bulls to make a comeback. Hence, further sustainable upside from here could negate the bearish setup and confirm an important bottom reversal for the short term in the Nifty 50.
Key Resistance: 24,900, 25,250
Key Support: 24,600, 24,400
Strategy: Buy Nifty August Futures near 24,900, with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 25,300.
Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
After making a short-term top near 25,600 levels, the Nifty has shown a correction of nearly 1,000 points, marking a steeper decline compared to the Bank Nifty. In the previous session, the Nifty found support near the 24,600 levels. As we are already approaching the monthly F&O expiry day, we expect volatility to remain on the higher side for the next two days.
Overall, the daily trend is still negative, as since July 24, the Nifty has not closed above the prior day’s high. A close above the prior day’s high can trigger short covering in the markets. On the open interest front, the 25,000 strike has the highest open interest on the Call side, making it an important hurdle. A break above this can confirm a change in the daily trend.
The overall tone remains sell on rise, with targets at 24,660 followed by 24,550 levels. On the upside, a break above 24,900 can extend further short covering toward 25,000.
Key Resistance: 25,000
Key Support: 24,550
Strategy: Short positions can be created if the Nifty moves to 24,880 and breaks below 24,770, with a stop-loss at 24,880 and targets of 24,660 followed by 24,550.
Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta
On the daily chart, the RSI stands at 42.05—still below the signal line but curving upward—indicating emerging bullish momentum. The price action suggests a short-term reversal may be underway.
On the hourly chart, the index closed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 24,846, calculated from the swing high of 25,246 (July 24) to the recent low of 24,598 (July 29). A move toward and above the 61.8% retracement level at 24,998 would strengthen the bullish case and confirm momentum reversal.
On the weekly chart, despite the near-term recovery, the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows for the past four weeks, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment. The weekly RSI at 54.77 remains below the signal line, reinforcing weakness on a broader timeframe.
On the monthly chart, Nifty has been forming higher highs and higher lows over the last four months, suggesting that the current decline may be a healthy retracement within a larger uptrend. However, the previous month's low at 24,473 is a key support; a breakdown below this level could indicate a possible shift toward a bearish monthly structure.
On the derivatives front, position unwinding in both ITM (in-the-money) Calls and Puts points to indecision in the market, with no clear directional bias at this point.
Given the bullish reversal on the daily chart and signs of recovery from oversold conditions, a buy-on-dips approach is advisable in the short term. However, traders should keep a close watch on 24,473 as a critical support level. A sustained move above 24,998 could open the door for further upside.
Key Resistance: 24,889, 24,998
Key Support: 24,598, 24,473
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near the cash price of 24,750 for a target of 24,998, with a stop-loss of 24,598.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities
The Bank Nifty seems to have halted its downward correction of the last few sessions on Tuesday and closed the day on a slightly positive note. It is currently placed at a key lower support of the 10-week EMA around the 56,000 level on the weekly chart and is attempting to show a decisive upside bounce. Hence, further sustainable upmove from here could indicate the formation of a short-term bottom reversal for the banking sector.
Key Resistance: 56,580, 57,170
Key Support: 55,800, 55,400
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty August Futures near 56,500, with a stop-loss of 56,100, targeting 57,200.
Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
On the daily chart, prices broke below the upward-sloping trendline at the start of this week, and for the first time since December 2024, prices closed below the 50-period moving average—a bearish sign. Currently, prices are trading near the major price action area of 56,000 levels. A daily close below the same can intensify further selling pressure.
Overall, Bank Nifty has continued to drift lower day by day. For now, sentiment has shifted to the negative side. A breach below 55,800 levels can intensify further selling pressure. On the upside, a break above 56,300 can trigger short covering.
Key Resistance: 56,500
Key Support: 55,300
Strategy: Short positions can be created below 55,800, with a stop-loss at 56,060 and targets of 55,540 followed by 55,300.
Preeti K Chabra, Founder at Trade Delta
The RSI on the daily chart is at 44.93—still below its signal line but turning upward—indicating a possible shift toward bullish momentum. The price action suggests a short-term recovery may be developing.
On the hourly chart, the index closed near the 20-period SMA at 56,287. A sustained move above the 40 EMA at 56,491 could open the path to the upper Bollinger Band resistance near 56,723, reinforcing the bullish setup.
On the weekly chart, the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows, highlighting the presence of medium-term bearish pressure. However, on the monthly chart, the Bank Nifty has been forming higher highs and higher lows for the past four months, suggesting the ongoing pullback could be a retracement within a broader uptrend.
On the derivatives front, unwinding in ITM Put positions reflects bearish undertones. Given the bullish reversal on the daily chart and signs of recovery from oversold levels, traders may consider a buy-on-dips approach in the short term. A close above 56,491 could confirm further upside toward 56,723.
Key Resistance: 56,491, 56,723
Key Support: 55,843, 55,500
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash price of 56,200 for a target of 56,491 followed by 56,723, with a stop-loss of 55,950.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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