The Nifty 50 remained in negative terrain for the third consecutive session, falling 0.1 percent on September 23. However, it managed to defend the short-term moving averages (10-day and 20-day EMAs), which are crucial for determining further direction in the near term. Meanwhile, momentum indicators signal a phase of sideways action. Overall, the index is expected to trade in the 25,000–25,500 range in the near term. A decisive break below 25,000 could widen the selling pressure, whereas a move above the upper range may open the door for a rally toward 25,700, according to experts.
Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:
1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,170)
Resistance based on pivot points: 25,240, 25,282, and 25,349
Support based on pivot points: 25,104, 25063, and 24,995
Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a small bearish candle with upper and lower shadows, resembling a high wave (not a classical one) type of candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. This indicates volatility and rangebound action. While selling pressure was visible, buying interest helped cut down the losses. The index continued to trade above key moving averages, while the MACD maintained its positive crossover, and the histogram remained above the zero line, although momentum appears to be fading. The RSI dropped to 56.79, reflecting a bearish crossover. All of this indicates a lack of strong directional momentum in the immediate term.
2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (55,510)
Resistance based on pivot points: 55,636, 55,754, and 55,947
Support based on pivot points: 55,251, 55,133, and 54,941
Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,595, 56,075
Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,967, 54,698
Special Formation: The Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow and a minor lower shadow on the daily charts, signaling a positive trend, although there was some resistance near the 55,670 level for yet another session. The banking index defended its 50-day and 10-day EMAs on a closing basis, supported by above-average volumes. The RSI moved upward, reaching the 57.64 zone, while the MACD maintained its bullish crossover, with the histogram sustaining above the zero line. All of this indicates a positive bias, though some pressure at higher levels persists.
According to the monthly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.03 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,500 strike (94.18 lakh contracts), and the 25,300 strike (54.13 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 27.68 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,200 and 26,000 strikes, which added 25.97 lakh and 19.64 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 24,500 strike, which shed 23,325 contracts, followed by the 24,600 and 24,850 strikes, which shed 18,975 and 7,125 contracts, respectively.
On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,000 strike (with 82.12 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 24,500 strike (66.15 lakh contracts) and the 25,200 strike (43.46 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,200 strike, which saw an addition of 16.82 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 25,100 strikes, which added 15.38 lakh and 13.9 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,500 strike, which shed 1.52 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,400 and 25,600 strikes, which shed 67,500 and 49,275 contracts, respectively.
5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data
According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike, with 13.79 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (12.14 lakh contracts) and the 56,500 strike (11.11 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 57,200 strike (with the addition of 2.69 lakh contracts), followed by the 56,700 strike (2.01 lakh contracts), and the 56,500 strike (72,030 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 55,600 strike, which shed 1.73 lakh contracts, followed by 56,000 and 55,500 strikes, which shed 1.63 lakh and 1.49 lakh contracts, respectively.
6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data
On the Put side, the 54,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 16.4 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 55,000 strike (16.03 lakh contracts) and the 55,500 strike (9.41 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was observed at the 54,200 strike (which added 3.73 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,500 strike (2.48 lakh contracts) and the 54,000 strike (1.88 lakh contracts). The maximum Put winding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 6,475 contracts, followed by the 56,800 and 56,700 strikes, which shed 1,365 and 1,050 contracts, respectively.
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, rebounded to 0.97 on September 23, compared to 0.72 in the previous session.
The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
9) India VIX
The India VIX, also known as the fear index, rose by 0.64 percent to 10.63, continuing its uptrend for the third consecutive session and sustaining above its 10-day EMA. This signals some caution for the bulls.
A long build-up was seen in 52 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.
11) Long Unwinding (36 Stocks)
36 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.
12) Short Build-up (99 Stocks)
99 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.
13) Short-Covering (25 Stocks)
25 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.
Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.
Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil
Stocks retained in F&O ban: HFCL, RBL Bank, Sammaan Capital
Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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