The market continued its downward journey for another session, with the Nifty 50 falling 0.86 percent on April 25 due to further profit booking, amid rising VIX levels tracking India-Pakistan border tensions. According to experts, considering the technical structure, the index is expected to remain in the range of 23,800–24,350 in the upcoming sessions. If it manages to hold above 24,000, an upward move toward 24,200 cannot be ruled out. However, if it falls below 24,000, the level of 23,800 will act as key support, coinciding with the February swing high.
Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:
1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (24,039)
Resistance based on pivot points: 24,282, 24,404, and 24,602
Support based on pivot points: 23,886, 23,764, and 23,567
Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with a lower shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating selling pressure but also some buying interest at lower levels. It created a wide range (23,850–24,365) on Friday, suggesting that a breakout on either side of the range could provide a firm direction for the index. Overall, the trend remains positive, given that the index stays above all key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs). Momentum indicators showed mixed signals: the RSI (Relative Strength Index) tilted downward but remained above the 60 mark, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) continued trending higher with a strong positive crossover above the zero line.
2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (54,664)
Resistance based on pivot points: 55,179, 55,456, and 55,905
Support based on pivot points: 54,282, 54,005, and 53,556
Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 56,307, 58,648
Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,460, 53,447
Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also displayed a similar pattern, falling 1 percent, which was on expected lines following the recent sharp rally. The index recorded a lower highs–lower lows formation for another session. However, the overall trend still favours the bulls, as the index remains well above all key moving averages, all of which are trending upward.
According to the weekly options data, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.04 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,500 strike (88 lakh contracts), and the 24,300 strike (68.6 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,500 strike, which saw an addition of 49.88 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 24,400 strikes, which added 46.01 lakh and 39.88 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 23,300 strike, which shed 34,950 contracts, followed by 23,200 and 23,600 strikes, which shed 6,075 and 5,850 contracts, respectively.
On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen 23,500 strike (with 67.08 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 24,000 strike (57.25 lakh contracts) and the 23,800 strike (43.05 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,500 strike, which saw an addition of 29.65 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,800 and 23,200 strikes, which added 20.69 lakh and 19.96 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 24,200 strike, which shed 8.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,300 and 24,500 strikes, which shed 7.06 lakh and 1.82 lakh contracts, respectively.
5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data
According to the monthly options data, the 53,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 9.93 lakh contracts. This can act as a key level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 55,500 strike (9.1 lakh contracts) and the 55,000 strike (7.82 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was visible at the 53,500 strike (with the addition of 4.41 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,000 strike (1.43 lakh contracts) and the 54,500 strike (1.36 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 53,000 strike, which shed 3 lakh contracts, followed by the 54,000 and 55,300 strikes, which shed 25,620 and 22,260 contracts, respectively.
6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data
On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 53,000 strike (with 15.34 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 54,000 strike (9.03 lakh contracts) and the 53,500 strike (8.24 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was observed at the 53,500 strike (which added 4.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,500 strike (1.11 lakh contracts) and the 54,700 strike (77,970 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 53,000 strike, which shed 1.97 lakh contracts, followed by the 55,500 and 55,300 strikes, which shed 75,930 and 66,540 contracts, respectively.
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, fell at 0.87 on April 25, from 1.03 in the previous session.
The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
9) India VIX
The India VIX—the fear gauge—extended its upward journey for the third consecutive session, climbing above the 17 mark to 17.16 levels, up 5.58 percent, adding further discomfort for the bulls.
A long build-up was seen in 6 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.
11) Long Unwinding (89 Stocks)
89 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.
12) Short Build-up (117 Stocks)
117 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.
9 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.
Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.
Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil
Stocks retained in F&O ban: Nil
Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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