Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.
Review: The price moment in the markets are expected to rise and form a bell curve pattern. As expected, private banks attracted huge investments, and Reliance as well took significant investment flow and finally chemical companies attracted fairly good investments, defence especially the shipping companies have become unstoppable. We are at a new high, and quite considerable number of stocks have been trading below three week’s lows. The index move was specific with heavy weights and just top 10 or 12 stocks participated, while rest of the market was facing selling pressure. News of front running and manipulation also became pressure point for select stocks. Overall, a very comforting week for the long-term investors and especially the large cap portfolio owners.
Technical – Nifty moved up by 509 points. It was four days positive and one negative movement that was on Friday. The short term swing move has achieved its first target of 24,175 and the next possible target is 24,380.
On the other hand, 24,190 and 24,360 zone is also a target of the weekly pattern. On the Monthly TimeMap the level is 24,600 to 24,859. The confluence of target and selling zones from short-, medium- and the long-term TimeMap will ensure strong selling pressure around 24,170 and above. On the downside, 23,206 is the level of defence for the bulls & total down trend will be markets at the breaking of 22,410 Nifty level. We might see further steep up-move before we enter the long corrective sideways phase that is expected to confirm in the month of October but start in the month of July 2024.
TimeMap – Sun is in Nakshatra Aardra – it is showing positive for FMCG, Pharma, and top 100 Index stocks. It means front line stocks would remain in investment list in the coming week. The flow of the funds look like they are heading towards defensive strategies. While the upcoming week is slightly positive and showing bias towards bulls, we expect to reduce momentum exposure and move in stable defensive low beta investments. After July 6, markets would become more volatile, and maximum investment will go towards value investing strategies. The TimeMap is not bearish, but it is certainly changing in the investing strategies from July 6 onwards till the end of the month.
There are multiple aspects of Mercury, Venus, Mars, Neptune, and Pluto, which are strong and powerful enough to give trend reversal of a sector and lead indices as well.
July marks a pivotal moment for equity markets, setting the stage for the emergence of new sectors poised to thrive over the next 2 to 3 years, driven by visionary investors. Notably, stocks and sectors primed for exuberance and reaching the peak of euphoria often do so by the end of October.
July 01,2024: Monday: K.10: Bharani: Good to Book profits
Higher opening will be considered as negative for the markets. Tithi rewards proactive actions. Nakshatra is good for taking profits. Retail business models will attract more limelight today, as the sector will witness portfolio churning. Agriculture, especially seeds and direct food business will trigger weekly signals. STBT is highly recommended for stocks which are closing towards high of the day.
July 02, 2024: Tuesday: K.11/12: Kruttika: Bad Day
Flat or negative opening. Wait for few minutes and look for sell signals, as divergence will be the most rewarding indicator of the day. Tithi is bearish and Nakshatra is sharp. Contrarian trades will give more profits.
It will be a bit tough as majority cannot participate contrarian. Trend following systems would incur losses. BTST in IT stocks or technology and internet stocks is highly recommended.
July 03, 2024: Wednesday: K.13: Rohini: Bad Day
Tithi 13 increases volatility. Spike candles generated under influence of Tithi 13th, are very important on the charts, and they can be used as important candles. Nakshatra is soft, markets will be sluggish in the opening hours and post lunch we do expect a very aggressive, sudden spike in volumes due to some external news or event. High Beta counters and index heavy stocks should be used for trading.
Important time to watch is 12.15 to 12.45. One of the strongest bearish signals could get generated on the charts of individual stocks and even indices.
July 04, 2024: Thursday: K.14: Mrugga: Bad day.
Quick response and swift action are the key to success. Best day for the traders who can participate on both sides or strategy in options. Momentum breakout indicators will give best results. Communication, power, and defence are sectors to watch for making big profits. BTST is highly recommended, in oversold stocks. Negative closing expected.
July 05, 2024: Friday: Amavasya: Aardra: Bullish Day
Flat to nominal positive opening cannot be ruled out. We are expecting markets to give a very wide movement and it would be directional, but slow and steady. From the next day, 6th Sun entry in Nakshatra Punervasu, will witness biggest sector churn in coming 2 months.
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