Rupee to hit new lows vs USD; Here’s why investors should not worry even after 10% dip

A USD/EM or USD/Asia move is not uncommon during a US rate hike cycle when shorter end US rates start heading northward. The unwinding of carry trades and the concerted exodus of hot money causes sharp moves.

The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have dented risk sentiment globally. The People’s Bank of China has used Yuan devaluation as a tool to offset the trade tariffs imposed by the US and to keep their exports competitive.

The weakness in the Yuan has spilled over to other Asian and EM currencies. In addition, sanctions on Turkey and the economic crisis in Argentina have further exacerbated the move in the EM space.

Elevated crude prices have also dampened the outlook on the current account front. Among stable economies, the ones running a current account deficit have seen sharper moves.

When the crude prices were lower, our economy witnessed positive terms of trade shock and this caused the Rupee to appreciate relative to other currencies. However, the relative appreciation of the Rupee is detrimental to our exports.

The elasticity of our exports to Rupee is high as our exports can be substituted by exports from other countries. This explains why our exports have underperformed despite strong global growth over the last couple of years.

This phenomenon wherein one sector of the economy benefits at the expense of the other is referred to as the Dutch disease. Moreover, a stronger Rupee also hurts domestic industries as imports become cheaper in relative terms.

The fact that the Rupee overvaluation is now getting corrected in REER terms is actually positive for our exports and domestic industry. Exports contribute 20 percent to our GDP and is a major employment generating sector.

The recent steep move in the Rupee has caused some nervousness among importers and corporates with unhedged foreign currency borrowing.

Many importers were compelled to take stops above the 70 mark and this too has contributed to the Dollar demand. Seasonality has been against the Rupee as well.

August has historically been a weak month for the Rupee. Defence-related outflows also typically happen during this time of the year.

Though the REER has corrected from 122 to 114 since January, a further 3-4% up move cannot be ruled out over the next 3-4 months if a panic in the EM markets continues.

There are several triggers on the global and domestic front for such a move to materialize. The major risk events on the global front are the FOMC September policy, US mid-term elections in November, developments on trade-related negotiations between the US and China.

While the US Fed is expected to hike rates by 25bps in September and December, more clarity will emerge on the pace of hikes in 2019 in the September policy.

The summary economic projections of the committee will be watched closely, particularly as Fed chair Powell had undermined risks of an inflation overshoot in his Jackson Hole speech.

The Rupee could underperform its EM peers if crude prices remain elevated. Markets are pricing in a 75 percent probability of another 25bps hike by the RBI in the October policy.

It will be interesting to see if the RBI changes its policy stance. The RBI has managed the Rupee well thus far. It has intervened in the OTC as well as exchange-traded markets to contain volatility and keep speculators at bay to prevent a repeat of 2013 like situation.

It was only in the most recent leg of up move that the volatility has spiked up. 1M ATMS vols have risen from 4.80% to 6.30% since 10th August*.

The farther end of the vol curve has not moved much at all, causing the vol curve to become flat. RBI’s Reserves have been drawn down from a peak of $426 billion in April to $401 billion now.

Managing liquidity would be a challenge for the RBI. Continued FX intervention, corporate advance tax outflows and festive season related currency demand could suck out liquidity from the banking system.

The RBI would have to re-infuse the liquidity through sizeable OMOs. There are risks on the fiscal front as well. The GST revenues have been undershooting expectations. The government has already reached 86% of its budgeted fiscal deficit target by July itself.

Though this is generally the case as expenses are front loaded and receipts backloaded, this year could be different as the government can ill afford to clamp down on spending, heading into an election year and indirect tax collections and divestment proceeds are likely to remain tepid.

Any fiscal slippage would be viewed negatively by FPIs and could spook the bond markets.

Considering the fact that there is still some steam left in this Rupee up move, it would be prudent for exporters to hedge medium-term exposures by selling risk reversals so that they can retain participation in case the move plays out (Buying Puts and Selling Calls).

1M 25d RRs have risen from 0.5% to 1.1% since the start of August and this would offer decent participation on the up side. On the other hand, Importers can look to hedge through long side seagulls or plain vanilla call options.

*(To make sense of the relative panic in EM space, while the 3M vols in IDR have risen from 6.5 to 11.5% since 10th August, 3M INR vols have merely risen from 5.2% to 6.2%. INR vols are still much lower compared to CNH, KRW and IDR)

Disclaimer: The author is Founder and CEO of IFA Global. The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.