Retail investors stay away from market this Diwali: Udayan

Despite the Nifty opening at 6300, the general mood in the market is rather tepid. Gold has not done too well and that is a sour point with many a retail investors. But one cannot complain about the stocks.

So other than the stock market, where retail participation is very less, gold as an asset class has not done well and neither has real estate, says Udayan Mukherjee. He sees more market volatility going ahead. Below is the verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee's views on CNBC-TV18
One couldn't have asked for a better Diwali, with Nifty opening at 6300 and a special new high on the Sensex.
But there are some wrinkles. Gold has not done well and that is always a bit of a sour point for so many retail investors. It has been a kind of a party pooper over the last one year, but for stocks one cannot complain and depending on what happens today, more sense can be made of whether this party can really continue and build on this momentum. Sensex, Nifty gained from fall in gold
For the broader universe of people, has this Diwali been financially good. Perhaps not, because from last Diwali to this Diwali, gold is down more than 20 percent. Silver is down 30 percent. Gold and silver actually hurts Indian retail much more than stocks. Indian retail public are not in the stock market, so this Diwali as they look back they will probably not feel so happy about how the last 12 months have panned out.
Real estate has not had a great year. In many pockets of the country there are signs of stagnation in real estate and that is another pocket which actually hurts a lot of investors. It is good to see the Sensex at an all-time high, but because it is the asset class to which retail is the least exposed, people are not quite so jubilant and joyful this Diwali in terms of how their financial performance has been - taking nothing away from the fact that the Sensex has had a terrific home run. Tepid mood despite new highs
White papers are reflecting the general mood. They know this time there is not a lot of celebration going on in the reader fraternity. Business environment has been very tough. Nobody can say that for most people it has been a great year economically or even financially speaking. However, that takes nothing away from the fact that the Sensex has hit a new high after five or six years and that is all very good. It could have been worse. Diwali could have been like where the market was in August and that would have been a real let down with the way things were selling off then.
Then it would have been all bad. Gold bad, silver bad, property bad, stocks bad and that would have been a very somber Diwali. Nobody wants that. So at least one part of it whether people are in or not is actually on the screen flashing some green. Can the New Year bring some kind of change in mood, sentiment and climate?
One can only hope. Even last Diwali, when there was a lot of talk about this very thing, the Nifty was not doing too badly and the mood was such that the markets are now ready to takeoff and in the middle of the year it just went completely awry. This Diwali and the next Diwali will probably be characterised by a lot of bumps along the way.
The mood right now is such that it is tempting to say the market is going to go much higher from here. It probably will, but it is difficult to thump the table yet - given that so much of this rally has been driven by the brute force of dollars over the last couple of months.
So much of it hinges on the political outcome. The market will probably see some more volatility coming back. It’s difficult to predict whether the Nifty will have a very good run before volatility returns. It can only be hoped that today marks a turning point.