Nifty target 26,300: CLSA’s Laurence Balanco eyes new record high; weak dollar, autos, metals driving rally

The Nifty 50 index could climb to a fresh all-time high of around 26,300 by December 2025 or early 2026, supported by a weakening US dollar and a potential “melt-up” in global equities, according to Laurence Balanco, technical strategist at CLSA.

Support holds, momentum builds

Balanco told CNBC TV18 that the Nifty’s repeated defence of the 24,000-24,300 zone has reinforced the market’s bullish base. “The positive is that we keep on respecting that 24,000 area… it basically keeps the February-April base in place which still gives us some upside target of 26,300,” he said.

This prospective target surpasses the benchmark’s current all-time high of 26,277.35, recorded in September 2024.

Balanco added that automobile and metal stocks are likely to lead the rally, while a stabilising banking sector provides the foundation for further gains. Within autos, he identified Bajaj Auto as a potential “catch-up” trade.

He remains structurally bullish on Indian equities, maintaining a long-term target of 37,000-40,000 on the Nifty by 2029-30.

Data show Nifty’s underlying strength

The Nifty 50 has gained about 1 percent over the past month and 5.74 percent year-to-date, trading at 25,111.6 on Wednesday afternoon. Since mid-May, when it decisively climbed above 24,400, the index has consistently held above 24,300 -- rebounding each time from this crucial support.

Over the past year, the Nifty has risen 0.37 percent, with a 52-week high of 25,669.35 reached on 30 June 2025 and an all-time high of 26,277.35 on 27 September 2024. These figures suggest the market is already within roughly 5 percent of Balanco’s near-term target.

Dollar decline and sector rotation

Balanco’s optimism on emerging markets stems largely from his bearish view on the US dollar. He noted that the dollar index’s drop below the 99-100 range marked a “major multi-year top”, with further downside of about 9-10 percent towards the 89-90 area. “That’s a significant positive for emerging markets and should drive a rotation of capital away from US equities,” he said.

Commodities outlook

On commodities, Balanco described gold as being in a “blow-off phase”, nearing the upper end of his $4,000-4,100 target range, and warned that such accelerated rallies are typically followed by multi-month consolidations. He advised investors to “take some profits and look for a consolidation pattern to develop” as prices approach $4,100. For silver, he sees resistance near $50, while Brent crude is expected to remain range-bound between $58-60 on the downside and $70-71 on the upside.

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