On July 31, 2024, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Here are the crucial insights from Powell's address:
1. Potential rate cuts on the horizon
Jerome Powell hinted that a rate cut could be imminent, stating, "A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September." This remark reflects the Fed’s ongoing discussions about easing monetary policy. Powell added, "We’re getting closer to the point at which it'll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate, but we’re not quite at that point." While the Fed maintained the current rates, this statement sets the stage for potential changes in the near future.
2. Inflation progresses towards 2%
The Fed acknowledged "some further progress" toward its 2 percent inflation target. Powell noted a shift from the previous statement’s "modest further progress" to describe inflation as "somewhat elevated." This change indicates improved inflation control while also underscoring the need for continued vigilance.
Also Read | Fed hints at September rate cut; How will Indian markets react?
3. Job market back to pandemic eve Powell said that the job market is "back to where it was on the eve of the pandemic." He noted that, with the job market returning to pre-pandemic conditions, further cooling might raise concerns for the Fed. He referred to the slower momentum as an "ongoing gradual normalisation," given that the labor market had previously surged following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020.
4. Fed Outlook: Status Quo
The FOMC's decision to hold rates steady at 5.25-5.50 percent reflects a cautious approach. Despite discussions about potential rate cuts, the majority of the committee supported maintaining the status quo. Powell hinted that while a 50 basis-point cut is not anticipated, the Fed is weighing future decisions. Decisions on monetary policy are a "very difficult judgment call,” he said explaining the complexity of balancing economic indicators.
Also Read | US Fed Meet Highlights: Federal Reserve leaves interest rate unchanged
5. A soft landing in view
Powell indicated a positive outlook for the economy, noting that the risks of high inflation have diminished as the labor market cools. His comments suggested a preference for a soft landing rather than abrupt changes.
Market reactions and future expectations
Powell's tone was optimistic, contributing to a rally in the stock market. The S&P 500 saw its largest gain since February, while Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened against other major currencies.
Powell's dovish comments bolstered market expectations for a rate cut, with traders now pricing in at least two reductions by year-end. The upcoming job report, due on August 2, will offer additional insights into the Fed's potential policy moves.
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