A technical sharp correction cannot be ruled out by October 2022; however, each correction may be a buying opportunity at least for Indian investors, says Amit Jain of Ashika Global Family Office Services in an interview with Moneycontrol.
He believes India is a sweet place to face any global recession, due to its inherent strength of the demographic and democratic structure.
The Co-founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services with more than 18 years of experience in banking and financial services will prefer domestic consumption stories over globally exposed businesses. He is of the view that Indian stock markets will touch new highs before any other global markets in the world.
The Indian markets have been rangebound for a year now. Do you think the market will pick up pace in the coming months or the weak global environment will keep it volatile for the rest of the financial year? What is the possibility of the market hitting June lows?
Yes, the Indian market has been rangebound for the last one year but we need to cheer for the Indian market as it has been the best performing market in the world in the last 12 months.
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In the last one year, most of the global markets are down by 15 percent to 40 percent, whereas the Indian market was close to its all-time high last week. This shows the resilience of the Indian stock market against all other global markets in the recent turmoil.
Do you expect healthy growth in corporate earnings in the second half of the financial year despite a subdued global environment?
Yes, I believe the worst is behind Indian corporate earnings. However, I will prefer domestic consumption stories over globally exposed businesses. In my personal view, Indian stock markets will touch new highs before any other global markets in the world.
Do you see any possibility of a rise in uncertainty in the global environment in the coming quarters?
Yes, there may be a possibility due to increased geopolitical risk in the last one year. However, India may be the beneficiary of this shift in the global power equation by 2030.
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If the recession gets confirmed in the US, do you see a major correction in global equity markets?
A technical sharp correction cannot be ruled out by October 2022; however, each correction may be a buying opportunity, at least for Indian investors. India is a sweet place to face any global recession due to its inherent strength of demographic & democratic structure.
Do you see any possibility of a 100 bps hike in the Fed funds rate or will the Fed continue with another couple of 75 bps hikes in coming policy meetings?
Post September policy meeting by Federal Reserve, I see an overall 1.25 percent hike in interest rates by March 2023 and that may be the peak point for the upward trajectory of the rate of interest cycle.
When do you see the possibility of major buying in the IT space that was hit the most in the current calendar year?
I see very selective stock-specific opportunities in this sector at this point. There are a couple of stocks which are extremely well placed for new bull runs in this space.
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