Chartist Talk: Metal, defence to surprise in Samvat 2082? Prashant Shah sees Nifty in new territory

From the bottom formed in March 2020 to the peak in September 2021, the Nifty 50 Index rallied by around 200 percent. During the same period, the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index surged by approximately 475 percent, and the Nifty Midcap 150 Index gained around 397 percent — clearly showing stronger momentum in the broader market segment.

Since then, or roughly during Vikram Samvat 2081, the Nifty 50 has remained largely flat, while the Smallcap and Midcap indices have seen some correction. But when we observe their ratio charts with Nifty, the long-term trend of outperformance remains intact.

The structure still looks positive. The charts indicate a major long-term breakout, and I believe mid- and small-cap stocks are well-poised to regain strength. A selective, stock-specific approach in this space could work well in the new Samvat.

Do you rule out any major downside for the market from here on, and do you expect the Nifty 50 to hit 30,000 in the new year?

On the Point & Figure (P&F) charts, the Nifty has broken above all major bearish trendlines drawn from previous significant tops. When price enters this zone, I like to call it a “new territory” — a phase where indices often sustain momentum and keep making new highs as long as the structure remains intact.

Currently, the P&F patterns are bullish, with short-term vertical targets around 26,420 and 27,400, and medium-term counts extending beyond 30,000. While I don’t focus on specific levels or timelines, the chart structure clearly indicates a continuation of the uptrend.

While short-term periodic technical corrections are natural and even healthy, the broader setup doesn’t suggest a major downside at this point. A range-bound phase could occur in the interim, but a stock-specific approach should continue to deliver outperformance as the market gradually works its way higher.

Is the Sensex poised to reach the 1 lakh mark in Samvat 2082?

Both Nifty and Sensex chart structures remain bullish. On the Point & Figure charts, the medium-term bullish vertical counts for Sensex are still open, indicating potential for further upside in the coming phases.

Whether the 1 lakh mark is achieved within Samvat 2082 or slightly beyond is secondary — what matters is that the underlying structure continues to support the long-term uptrend. Broad range-bound movements are also a possibility in such phases, and a stock-specific approach with a focus on momentum and strength is likely to be the most effective strategy.

Are the charts suggesting that a new bull run is beginning in the banking index?

Yes, the Bank Index has regained strong momentum. A bullish ABC pattern was completed in May 2025, and the recent anchor column breakout is acting as a solid follow-through confirmation of that structure.

While short-term consolidation or minor corrections cannot be ruled out, the overall chart formation remains bullish. The setup indicates continuation of upward momentum in the coming period. Within the space, PSU banks, in particular, are showing strong relative strength and appear well-positioned to perform in the coming time.

After studying various technical indicators, which one is your favourite and why?

Any indicator — or even a combination of them — ultimately reflects a price setup. I consider myself more of a price pattern practitioner, focusing on noiseless charts to uncover hidden formations and follow objective, rule-based setups.

That said, I strongly recommend tracking Relative Strength and Breadth indicators. Together, they reflect Price, Performance (RS), and Participation (Breadth) — three key dimensions that offer a clear and comprehensive perspective on market trends and momentum.

My approach is to identify and ride momentum, adapting the stance as instruments change, without any preconceived bias.

Chart analysis helps us understand direction, but only systematic and disciplined execution leads to consistent success in the markets.

Which two sectors are on your radar for the new Samvat, and what is your rationale behind them?

The Auto and Auto Ancillary sectors are showing strong bullish structures on the charts. Both have been in steady uptrends, supported by improving price patterns and strong relative strength.

Additionally, mid- and small-sized financial services companies are displaying constructive setups. Their ratio charts against the broader indices are indicating continued momentum and relative outperformance.

Both these sectors are backed by structural strength rather than short-term moves, suggesting potential of outperformance in the new Samvat.

Will gold and silver, the favourites of Samvat 2081, continue their strong double-digit growth in Samvat 2082?

Yes, there is a strong possibility that the bullish trend in gold and silver will continue in Samvat 2082. After extended uptrends, price and time corrections are natural and healthy for sustaining momentum.

The chart formations remain positive, indicating that the underlying bullish structure is intact. As long as prices hold their higher swing supports, the trend is expected to extend further in the coming year.

In technical terms, healthy consolidation strengthens the foundation of a trend — and that seems to be the case with gold and silver as we enter the new Samvat.

Which sectors do you think could surprise market participants in Samvat 2082?

The Metal Index is showing an interesting ‘W’ pattern and a P&F chart ‘Pattern Retest’ formation near the bottom. This setup is supported by a bullish reversal and the negation of prior bearish formations, suggesting that the sector could continue its momentum phase and offer follow-through opportunities ahead.

Another space that could surprise is the Defence sector. After a strong rally earlier this year, it has undergone a healthy consolidation over the past few months. The chart structure remains bullish, with a strong anchor column at the base and signs of trend reversal emerging once again.

Both sectors display structural strength beneath temporary corrections, indicating that momentum may re-emerge and catch many participants by surprise in Samvat 2082.

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