Bernanke or Draghi: Who will dominate market mood?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday is likely to have a strong impact on US stock, currency and bond markets. Yet there is not much new the Fed chairman is likely to share with markets. Jackson Hole is witness to quantitative easing announcement in 2010. Simultaneously, investors across globe are eyeing September 6 ECB meet. Markets are expecting Mario Draghi to announce market is whether the ECB do announce some details about a prospective asset purchase program or a rate cut.

Over the past month most of the risk assets like US equities, European equities, currencies and equity classes in Asia have gained a bit in anticipation of what the central bankers will deliver Here's a snapshot of things to come:
*Bernanke speaks at 10 am on Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Wyoming.
*US traders are hoping for some kind of insight into Federal Reserve's thoughts  on QE3
*Expectation is that Jackson Hole may not provide the fireworks that were expected as jobs market in the US has shown signs of improvement. Retail sales numbers in July too came in very strong.
*In the past few months, equity markets in the US have moved higher in the hope of a stimulus package from the Fed. But recent data showing an  may have diluted the scope for further easing
*Some experts feel Bernanke may acknowledge improvement in the economy and outline the circumstances under which the Fed might feel the need to take action to ease policy
*There are a good number of international economists who say QE3 will come sometime later this year.
*Experts say the equity markets can see a big move up or down depending on the contents of the speech.
*Over the past month most of the risk assets like US equities, European equities, currencies and equity classes in Asia have gained a bit in anticipation of what the central bankers will deliver.
A more accommodative tone from the Fed could reassure markets but the ECB is not likely to shore up sentiment as much. Analysts have said the ECB's plans to buy government debt to reduce borrowing costs of stricken eurozone states will help soothe market jitters, but it does not resolve the fundamental issue of strengthening the fiscal foundation of the euro zone.
Greece remains a risk trigger for reversing the current moderately improved sentiment towards Europe.
Back home, the first part of September is absolutely crucial to where our market will go from here. It is also standing at an important crossroads having pulled back in the last few days. A global sell-off of 5-7% puts a lot of pressure on us and could be disastrous for the market.
The Nifty is at crucial levels now. If you lose another 40-50 points from here, traders will start talking about 5,050 straightaway because then it would look like a deeper downtrend than just not a shallow pullback.