The week beginning August 14 is packed with important national and global macroeconomic events that could have an impact on trading on Dalal Street.
In India, CPI inflation and WPI inflation readings for the month of July (August 14) will be released next week. In addition, India's trade exports, imports, and trade deficit data (August 15) will also be released.
On the global front in the next week, inflation data releases from Japan (Aug 17) and Eurozone (Aug 18) for July are important. In addition, GDP numbers will be out from Japan Q1 (Aug 14) and Eurozone Q2 Preliminary (Aug 16). Global markets are waiting for the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the US Fed. Additionally, the latest unemployment reports will be out from China (Aug 14), and Eurozone (Aug 16). Also, in the upcoming week, trade data will come out from Japan (Aug 16).
Let's take a look at the key economic data releases in the upcoming week:
August 14 (Monday)
India CPI July
India's headline retail inflation rate snapped its four-month falling streak and rose to 4.81 percent in June from 4.31 percent in May. At 4.81 percent, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for June takes the average for the first quarter of 2023-24 to 4.6 percent in line with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast.
WPI Inflation July
India's inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was -4.12% YoY for the month of June 2023, against -3.48% recorded in May 2023. The country's wholesale prices remained in the deflationary zone for the third month in a row in June. At -4.12 percent, the WPI inflation is the lowest since October 2015, when it was at -4.76 percent. The MoM change in WPI for June 2023 stood at -0.40 percent as compared to May 2023.
Japan GDP Q2 Preliminary
Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) for the first Quarter (January-March) was 2.7%, from the preliminary 1.6%. On QoQ basis, the economy expanded by 0.7%, up from the preliminary 0.4% reported in May.
China Unemployment Rate July
China's surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2% in June 2023, remaining flat from the previous month. Throughout the first half of the year, the unemployment rate averaged at 5.3%.
August 15 (Tuesday)
India Exports, Imports, Trade Deficit India's trade deficit narrowed to $20.13 billion in June, compared to $22.1 billion in May. Exports were down at $32.97 billion in June from $34.98 billion in May, and imports also dropped $53.10 billion in June from $57.10 billion in May.
UK Unemployment Rate June
The unemployment rate of the United Kingdom was 4 percent in May 2023, compared with 3.8 percent in April.
August 16 (Wednesday)
UK CPI, Core CPI July
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 7.9% YoY in June 2023, against 8.7% recorded in May. On a MoM basis, CPI rose by 0.1% in June 2023, compared with a rise of 0.7% in May. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) increased by 6.9% YoY in June 2023, from 7.1% in May. On a MoM basis, Core CPI rose by 0.2% in June 2023 vs a rise of 0.8% in May.
Eurozone GDP Q2 Preliminary
GDP stagnated in the first quarter of this year. But, GDP growth accelerated by 0.3% (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2023. Consumer prices grew by 5.3% in July versus 5.5% in June.
US Fed minutes of July meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release on August 16 the minutes of the policy meeting held on July 25-26, 2023.
The Federal Reserve raised rates in its previous meeting by 25 bps on July 26 to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, in its 11th increase of its last 12 meetings. Fed chair Jerome Powell left the door open to more hikes. The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 19-20, 2023. Investors and market observers have been awaiting minutes of the meeting for clues on the health of the economy, the Fed’s thinking on measures to combat high inflation, and the extent of future interest hikes.
Japan Exports, Imports, Trade Balance July
Japan's trade balance shifted to a surplus of Yen 43.05 billion in June 2023 from a deficit of Yen 1,374.99 billion in the same period of the prior year. Exports in June rose 1.5% from a year earlier, and imports decreased by 12.9% to JPY 8,701.01 billion
August 17 (Thursday)
US Initial Jobless Claims
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 21,000 to 248,000 for the week ended August 5. In the previous week, initial Jobless claims amounted to 227,000. The four-week moving average of claims ticked up by 2,750 to 228,250. Jobless claim applications are viewed as broadly representative of the number of layoffs in a given week.
Japan National CPI, Core CPI July
The annual inflation rate in Japan increased to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May. Core inflation (which excludes fresh food) also rose higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May.
August 18 (Friday)
Eurozone CPI, Core CPI July
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Eurozone annual inflation was expected to be 5.3% in July 2023, down from 5.5% in June. The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose by 5.5% annually in July 2023, unchanged with the rate from the previous month.
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