India's sugar exports are likely to fall below 800,000 metric tons this season, missing the 1 million-ton quota, as rising Brazilian supplies push global prices lower and undercut Indian shipments, trade and government officials said.
In January, India, the world's biggest sugar producer, allowed exports of 1 million tons in the current season through September 30, 2025, aiming to help mills sell surplus stocks on the global market while supporting domestic prices, which had fallen to their lowest level in 1-1/2 years.
After a flurry of deals earlier in the season, India's overseas sugar sales slowed in recent months as supplies from Brazil increased and global sugar futures fell to their lowest level in over four years.
Mills in India, also the world's biggest consumer of sugar, have so far contracted to export around 750,000 tons and have physically shipped about 720,000 metric tons, said the officials who did not wish to be named as they were not authorised to talk to the media.
Even under the most optimistic estimates, mills are unlikely to sign export deals for more than 25,000 tons by the end of this month, taking total overseas shipments in 2024-25 to around 775,000 tons, the officials said.
There were only a handful of export deals in the past few weeks, they said.
Lower shipments could prompt mills to request the government to allow exports of the remaining 200,000-plus tons in the new season beginning Oct. 1, the officials said.
Traditionally, Indian sugar has held an edge over Brazilian supplies in Asia due to lower freight costs, but in recent months Brazilian sugar has traded more than $25 cheaper than Indian shipments, they said.
The rise in Indian sugar prices above the global benchmark has also slowed exports, prompting mills to sell more in the domestic market, the officials said.
India, which sells sugar to countries including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates, was the world's No. 2 exporter during the five years to 2022-23, with volumes averaging 6.8 million tons annually.
India's sugar output is expected to rise in the new season beginning October 1, thanks to plentiful monsoon rains, brightening export prospects.
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