Indian air carriers stand to gain from the escalating US-China trade war, with Boeing likely to deliver up to 20 additional planes this year after Beijing recently ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries from the American planemaker.
The Chinese government’s order, not announced formally, is in response to the worsening tariff war with Washington, which has slapped 145 percent tariffs on imports from China.
For Indian airlines, the timing couldn’t be better. With passenger traffic booming and fleet expansion underway, more aircraft would help ease delivery bottlenecks and a shortage of aircraft.
“Indian airlines have over the last three years moved quickly to capitalise on the ban on Boeing 737 aircraft deliveries to China, and it would not be the least bit surprising if Indian carriers take delivery of more planes that were scheduled to be delivered to China,” a senior executive at a leading global aircraft leasing firm told Moneycontrol.
Delivery re-routed
Indian airlines have been quick to step into any gaps left by China in recent years.
Data from aviation analytics provider Cirium shows that Boeing delivered 13 737 Max jets and three 787 Dreamliners to Chinese carriers in the first quarter of 2025.
Another 28 Max and one more Dreamliner were lined up for the rest of the year. With the deliveries now frozen, many of these planes could be rerouted to Indian customers — Air India, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet are the likely candidates.
Since the coronavirus outbreak, Indian firms have bought 80 Boeing 737s that were meant for Chinese companies and another 10 which were for other international clients. China’s latest ban only adds to their advantage.
Boeing’s forecast, too, reflects the shift in global priorities in recent years.
In the past two years, Indian carriers have ordered more aircraft than their Chinese counterpart. Boeing considers China as one of its biggest growth markets but it is its European rival, Airbus, which holds the dominant position in the world’s second-biggest economy.
According to the latest available Boeing data, 130 planes are scheduled for delivery to Chinese airlines and around 506 to Indian carriers such as Air India, Akasa Air and SpiceJet over the next five years.
The company was averaging two deliveries a month to Indian carriers and expected that number to rise gradually, Ryan Weir, Boeing’s commercial sales and marketing head for India and South Asia, said in February.
Weir acknowledged that the past few years were “hard” for Boeing’s customers but stressed that safety and quality were now top priorities.
Production constraints though remain a challenge.
In 2024, US regulators capped Boeing’s monthly output of the 737 Max series at 38 aircraft following concerns over quality checks at its assembly lines. The cap remains in place, limiting the aircraft that can be diverted to Indian companies.
Executives at Air India, one of Boeing’s biggest customers in Asia, said the delivery pace was expected to slow again by mid-2025, as the aircraft manufacturer would run through its remaining inventory of jets built during the pandemic awaiting delivery.
According to a senior executive, Boeing has told the airline that fresh deliveries of 737 Max jets won’t start before FY27 due to capacity constraints.
Adding to Boeing’s troubles was a high-profile safety scare earlier this year. A door plug blew out mid-air on an Alaska Airlines flight, prompting emergency inspections and intensifying scrutiny from US regulators.
Even so, Boeing remains a key player in India’s aviation story.
According to Cirium, nearly a third of all 737 Max deliveries scheduled globally until 2030 are headed to Asia, with Indian airlines leading the demand.
With China out of the picture, for now, Indian carriers are well-placed to take early delivery of some of these aircraft.
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