Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce from $3,300, with a projected range of $3,650-$3,950, citing stronger-than-expected demand from central banks and higher exchange-traded fund inflows due to recession risks.
"If a recession occurs, ETF inflows could accelerate further and lift gold prices to $3,880 per troy ounce (toz) by year-end," the bank said in a note dated Friday.
"That said, if growth surprised to the upside on reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely revert to our rates-based predictions, with year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz."
The White House exempted smartphones and computers from "reciprocal" U.S. tariffs, however, President Donald Trump warned levies were still likely at some point.
Spot gold prices hit another record high on Monday at $3,245.42 per ounce but lacked clear direction as the market absorbed the ongoing tariff story.
The bank also nudged up its central bank demand assumption to 80 metric tons per month, from 70 tons earlier.
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