The colder weather prevailing in the growing region in March so far due to fresh snowfall in the mountains and higher acreage under the crop could reverse the impact of February's above-average temperatures on the country's 2025 wheat production.
In 2025, India witnessed the warmest February on record in 125 years, which could have had a bearing on India's production of wheat, which is a winter crop and cannot tolerate higher temperatures.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the country from March to April 2025, raising worries of a lower wheat yield.
However, the recent snowfall in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir have meant that temperatures in March have dropped significantly from the previous month, a big positive for the wheat output.
Siraj Hussain, former agriculture secretary, told Moneycontrol that the forecast of a warmer summer in 2025 is expected to have no impact.
“What matters is the temperatures witnessed in February and March... This April, government stock (of wheat) is likely to be higher than last year. According to government data, even the wheat production (in 2024) was not lower than the previous year,” he added.
The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India said on March 3 that India’s wheat production is expected to be better than last year on account of higher acreage.
During the 2024-25 crop year (July-June), India’s wheat production is expected to be 8.2 percent higher than last year as the area under the crop has expanded to 328 million hectares, the federation said.
India is the world's second-largest producer of wheat.
Wheat procurement
The government's buying of wheat has been falling short. In the 2023-24 marketing season, the government procurement was 26.1 million tonnes, much lower than the target of 34.2 million tonnes. In the previous year, during the 2022-23 rabi marketing season, procurement by government agencies was 18.7 million tonnes against the government target of 44.4 million tonnes. For the upcoming procurement season, which usually begins in April with the wheat harvest, the government has set a much lower target of 31 million tonnes.
With lower production and procurement, India was forced to ban wheat exports in 2022 to meet domestic demand. Reduced buffer stock at various godowns of the Food Corporation of India affected the government’s ability to regulate prices.
Indian farmers primarily grow wheat in Uttar Pradesh (the largest producer), Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana.
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