The easing of US tariffs is expected to unlock nearly $511 million in new export opportunities for Indian producers, with producers of spices, capsicum, tea, and coffee emerging as the biggest beneficiaries, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.
The rollback, signed by US President Donald Trump on November 14, reverses a portion of the steep duties imposed in August, when the US raised tariffs by as much as 50 percent on Indian products.
India’s reliance on the US market is particularly deep in high-value agri-linked categories. More than half of India’s pepper exports are headed to the US, with a share of 53.1 percent for one of the main traded lines.
Cinnamon is even more dependent, with 64 percent of India’s shipments absorbed by American buyers. Capsicum has similarly high exposure at 33.2 percent, with India exporting $99 million worth of capsicum products to the US in 2024. Cumin exports are sizeable at $45 million, though the US accounts for a smaller 6.3 percent share.
Tea and coffee show a comparable pattern, with 36.7 percent of green tea shipments bound for the US, while roasted, non-decaffeinated coffee records a 46 percent share. Coffee husks and substitutes show a near-identical 46.2 percent exposure. India also exported $60 million worth of black tea in 2024.
Fruit and nut categories such as desiccated coconut, guava-mango mixes, pine nuts and dried mangoes, carry smaller absolute values but persistently high US engagement. India shipped $154 million of dried guavas and mangoes in 2024, with 18 percent destined for the US.
The easing aligns with US import patterns that already place India inside the top 10 suppliers for several specialised commodities. Cassava starch, dried Pimenta berries, flavoured green tea, dried taro, desiccated coconut and multiple spice preparations all place India between ranks 5 and 10 in the US import table. In some lines, such as mixtures of spices, turmeric, coriander seeds, cumin seeds and crushed nutmeg, India’s share in US imports ranges from 20 percent to over 90 percent.
For instance, India accounted for 92 percent of the cumin seeds imported by the US and 61 percent of the US’s capsicum imports. Over half of the US’s preserved pineapples also came from India in 2024. Indian exporters have faced pressure since August, and shipments to the US fell 11 percent in September. The selective rollback restores headroom at a crucial moment.
India's exports declined for the first time this fiscal in October.
"One reason for fall in goods exports in October 2025 is due to a drop in exports to US," said commerce secretary Rajesh Agarwal.
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