Treasury curve inversion deepens as yields jump and then plunge

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve deepened Wednesday as the market proved volatile once again, with yields surging on the back of increased confidence about the prospect of Federal Reserve hiking interest rates and then tumbling anew before the day was out.

The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields shifted to a fresh extreme, with the longer rate dropping to be as much as 38 basis below the longer benchmark. That level on the widely watched yield curve metric, seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession, hasn’t been seen since 2000.

The benchmark 10-year rate climbed as much as 10 basis points to 2.85% during the US morning, while shorter-dated yields rose even more as traders briefly moved to price in the potential for a 75-basis-point Fed hike next month at around 1-in-2. By late in the US afternoon though, short-end yields were close to where they ended the prior day, while longer end rates were falling, with the 10-year ending around 2.70%. The slide weighed on the greenback, with the Bloomberg dollar index down marginally for the day after being up close to 0.4% at one stage during the session.

“Yields rose to levels that looked attractive and the buyers started with the back end and it feels like cash was being put to work in fixed income,” said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG. “There is no sense of a catalyst, but the fact the market can’t hold higher rates suggests there is some skepticism among investors that the Fed will not really deliver on its tough talk.”