Octogenarians to outnumber babies by 2063, shows UN population estimate

In 2054, India’s population is likely to rise 16.6 percent to 1.692 billion from 1.451 billion projected for July 2024.

“In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (aged 20-64 years) will grow through 2054, offering a window of opportunity, commonly known as demographic dividend. To capitalise on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency,”  the UN report noted.

By the turn of the century, the older population (over 65 years) dependency will rise to 53.1 percent in India, higher than both the global ratio of 40.2 percent and that of high income countries of 52.9 percent, but lower than China’s 98.9 percent. The United States is likely to see a lower old age dependency of 49.7 percent.

Moneycontrol had on July 11 reported that India’s population is expected to decline from 2062, when on January 1, its population would hit 1.701 billion. The median age is expected to rise to just below 42 years from 28.4 in 2024.

By 2100, India will still have 4.4 percent more people at 1.51 billion than today.

If the fertility rate were to increase faster (0.5 births above normal) than anticipated, India is likely to become the first country to cross 2 billion population mark by 2070 to 2.2 billion by 2100.

In case the growth rate is lower (0.5 births lower than normal), India’s population could peak at 1.55 billion in 2046.

Under the normal scenario, India’s life expectancy will cross 80 years around the time its population peaks from 72.2 years today and shall rise to 85.3 years by the start of the 22nd century.

Sex ratio is also to improve from 938 in 2024 to 946 within a decade and to 976 by end of century.