Monsoon may get delayed by a week; temperatures to soar: MET

The Met department unveiled its first monsoon forecast for 2016, saying that the onset of monsoon over Kerala is likely to be delayed by six days beyond its scheduled date of June 1.DS Pai, Director, India Met Department, in an interview to CNBC-TV18, said although they expect the monsoon to set in Kerala on June 7, the rainfall will be normal over central and northwest India. However, till then the temperatures in those regions could increase in the  next few weeks.According to him, over the next one month the EL Nino is likely to reach neutral conditions.Further, the department sticks to its earlier forecast of 106 percent of LPA for this monsoon season. He also specified that this delay does not necessarily mean it will be delayed in other parts of the country. Below is the verbatim transcript of DS Pai’s interview with Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18. Q: We are getting the press release on the onset of the date over Kerala. Can you just start off by taking us through that because at this point in time everyone is eager to know when the monsoon will hit the Kerala region? A: Normal date of monsoon onset over the south Andaman Sea is 15th May and the North Andaman Sea is at 20th May and we have been observing lot of clouding and increased convective and rainfall activity across the equatorial Indian Ocean. We are expecting that in the next two or three days there will be a formation of low pressure system which is likely to concentrate into a depression during the next two to three days and that can cause or help monsoon to set over Andaman Sea close to its normal date. By 17th we are expecting monsoon to set over south Andaman Sea around 17th and by around 20th May it set over North Andaman Sea. However, we are expecting a slight delay over the monsoon onset over Kerala. As per our statistical model forecast which we use for operational forecasting the monsoon is likely to set off over Kerala on 7th June against its normal date of onset of 1st June. So, there is a bit delay we are expecting. Q: As against the normal date of 1st June you are expecting a bit of delay in the Kerala region, so you are saying that the monsoon will set in the Kerala region on the 7th of June. Any more details on what the other geographies could see in terms of a timeline because the drought hit areas of Marathwada, of other Central parts of India are really awaiting the date so far so can you give us more details on how the progression will be from the South up North wards? A: Over Maharashtra and all normal date is between 8th June to 15th June and since we are expecting now a delay of monsoon onset over Kerala naturally, there will be slight delay in this Central part also. However, the exact date we will be able to provide only in the short range or medium range once monsoon sets over Kerala. Q: If you can just tell us that does the early onset of the monsoon indicate that the monsoon rains will be good this year? I mean I know you have already given us a forecast of 106 percent of long period average. How confident would you be of that forecast now that you have a little more details on what the exact dates could be? A: There is actually no relationship between onset over Kerala or Andaman and the quantity of rainfall that we are expecting in the all India. However, since, as we are expecting our models are indicating that a La Nina is slightly in the later part of the monsoon season, we are still expecting that the monsoon rainfall over India for at a season, the June to September will 106 percentage as we have predicted in April. It still holds good.