India’s kharif acreage has inched up 1.4 percent over last year and stands marginally above the long-term normal, but heavy excess rainfall in several states threatens to undo much of the progress.
“The IMD has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall activity over northwest, central India and many parts of south peninsular India next week, indicating that the season-end will still witness heavy rains,” said Aastha Gudwani, chief India economist, Barclays.
Above last year, but below target
According to official data, kharif area reached 1,110.8 lakh hectares as of early September, compared with 1,095.9 lakh hectares a year ago. Rice acreage is higher by 2 percent and coarse cereals by 6.7 percent, but oilseeds are down 2.6 percent year-on-year and pulses barely 0.7 percent higher. Cotton coverage has also slipped 2.5 percent from 2024–25 levels.
Despite the improvement, acreage remains 3.2 percent short of targets. Pulses and oilseeds are down a tenth, while sugarcane trails by 15 percent compared with target area.
Rainfall risks
Rainfall patterns underline the challenge. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi have all received 40–50 percent excess rain this season, Rajasthan is up 68 percent and Ladakh more than 400 percent. Karnataka, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh also report significant surpluses. By contrast, eastern states like Bihar (-30 percent), Assam (-31 percent) and Meghalaya (-44 percent) are reeling under shortfalls.
All-India rainfall stood 7 percent above normal as of September 15. Gudwani noted that while sowing of rice, coarse cereals and sugarcane is complete, “there is still some ground to cover in pulses, oilseeds, jute and mesta.”
Storage levels reassuring
Reservoir levels are a bright spot. Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are reporting better positions than last year. These will play a crucial role for the rabi season. Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh together account for nearly 40 percent of rabi foodgrain sowing, while Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Punjab—which are recording healthy storage—make up another quarter.
Inflation outlookA healthy kharif and strong reservoir levels are expected to keep food prices contained. Economists expect GST cuts from September 22 to provide further cushion, with inflation forecast to average between 3.1 percent in FY26, lower than the 4 percent projected earlier.
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