India's energy demand is likely to almost double in next 25 years as the economy is estimated to expand to USD 9 trillion by 2040, US oil major ExxonMobil said in its Energy Outlook 2040. "Through 2040, we see China, India and other non-OECD countries home to seven-eighth of the world's population needing much more energy to fuel economic development and rising living standards. "On the other hand, the US, Europe and other OECD nations will see declines in overall energy demand and emissions, even as their economic output continues to grow," ExxonMobil said.
India's energy demand is likely to rise from 34 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) to 47 quadrillion BTUs in 2025 and 63 quadrillion BTUs in 2040. During this period, the world energy demand is projected to rise by 26 percent to 703 quadrillion BTUs, with India's share in world energy demand rising from 6 percent in 2014 to 9 percent in 2040. "We anticipate some developed economies to see net declines in overall energy demand through 2040," it said adding by 2040, India will have passed China as the world's most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people.
China and India also lead the developing world in raising standards of living and achieving technology improvements. Together, China and India will account for almost half the projected growth in global energy demand to 2040. ExxonMobil also projected the country's GDP to rise from USD 2 trillion in 2014 to USD 9 trillion in 2040.
China will rise to almost 20 percent of the world GDP, close to the US while India exceeds 5 percent. India's electricity usage is expected to soar, rising 185 percent during 2014-2040. Its coal-fired electricity use may more than double during this period.
"While developed economies still enjoy the world's highest standards of living, we expect that China, India and many other nations will see strong growth in GDP and living standards to 2040. Not coincidentally, developing nations also are expected to lead the world in energy demand growth," it said. ExxonMobil said a relatively large working-age group is an important factor supporting future economic growth in India and other developing nations.
On the other hand, aging populations will continue to pose a challenge to economic growth in the OECD. "Aging will also impact China's potential growth. By 2040, more than 20 percent of China's population will be age 65 or older, up from just 9 percent today," it said.
It expected strongest per capita GDP rise in the non-OECD, particularly China and India. "By 2040, per capita income in China and India is expected to be more than three times today's level," ExxonMobil said. Carbon emissions will continue to rise in India and other developing countries through 2040, but around 2030, the downward trends in the OECD and China are expected to more than offset those increases, it added.
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