The government has given itself top marks for its first year performance, but a survey by the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) says business confidence has fallen sharply in Q4 of FY15. The decline has been across the board, with the services sector showing the largest fall of 13.6 percent.
In this quarter, the NCAER's business confidence index (BCI) has fallen 6.9 percent from levels seen in the previous quarter.
The decline has been pretty-much across the board with the services sector showing the largest fall of 13.6 percent. Confidence in the capital goods sector is down 13.1 percent. The silver lining is in the consumer durables space, where confidence has inched higher by a marginal 0.8 percent. Incidentally, this sector displays the highest business confidence.
Breaking down the responses in terms of firm size also points to gloomy sentiment. The BCI of the Rs 100-500 crore firms declined the maximum - 9.2 percent, followed by the BCI of firms less than Rs one crore, which fell 8.6 percent. The only group to show a marginal increase in BCI are the firms falling in the Rs 10-100 crore category. This was up 0.4 percent.
The report says that most firms are not convinced on two counts -- a) that "overall economic conditions will be better in the next six months,"b) 'the present investment climate is positive'.
Sentiment regarding sales and exports going forward was subdued as well, with larger firms not expecting an increase in either. But what's more worrying is that sentiment regarding production was downright discouraging.
Going by the results of this survey, the government will need to move quickly on stimulating the economy.
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