India Q4 GDP Highlights | The country's gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 8.7 percent in FY22 after growth slid to 4.1 percent in the January-March quarter, as per the data released on May 31 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
Growth likely slowed down in the first quarter of 2022 because of the hit to activity from the Omicron variant-led third COVID-19 wave and the Russia-Ukraine war.
The high growth figure, for FY22, is largely due to a favourable base effect, with the economy having contracted by 6.6 percent in FY21 because of the coronavirus pandemic and intermittent lockdowns, which restricted economic activity.
The economy's near-term prospects have been darkened by a spike in retail inflation, which hit an eight-year high of 7.8% in April. The surge in energy and commodity prices following the Ukraine crisis is also exerting a drag on economic activity.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the benchmark repo rate by 40 basis points in an unscheduled meeting early this month.
Economists have revised down India's growth forecast for 2022 as rising energy and food prices have hit consumer spending - which accounts for 55% of the economy - while most companies increasingly pass on rising input costs to consumers.
"The rise in crude oil, food and fertiliser prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead," Moody's, the rating agency, said in a note. It has cut India's growth forecast to 8.8% from 9.1% for the 2022 calendar year.
The rupee's nearly 4% depreciation against the dollar this year has also made imported items costlier, prompting the federal government to restrict wheat and sugar exports and cut fuel taxes, joining the RBI in the battle against inflation.
High-frequency indicators showed supply shortages and higher input prices were weighing on output in the mining, construction and manufacturing sector, even as credit growth has picked up and states are spending more.
Indian consumer sentiment slid in early May, dipping for the second month in a row, as rising fuel prices and broader inflation hit household finances, according to a Refinitiv Ipsos Indian survey.
Unemployment rose to 7.83% in April from 7.57% in March, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a Mumbai-based private think tank.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said last week that the central bank's primary focus was to bring inflation closer to its target but it could not disregard concerns around growth.
With Reuters inputs
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Govt lowers FY22 GDP growth estimate to 8.7% as growth slides to 4.1% in Q4
The statistics ministry had estimated in February that India's GDP would grow 8.9 percent in FY22.... Read More
India GDP Growth LIVE |
"Peak impact of interest rate hikes on GDP will be felt only towards the end of this fiscal year. I see support to growth from a strong bounce-back in contact-based services, which last fiscal was about 11.3% lower than fiscal 2020 levels. But headwinds from slower global growth and higher oil prices have tilted the risks -- to our forecast of 7.3% for the current fiscal -- downwards,"said Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd.
India GDP Growth LIVE |
"Growth slowed down to 4.1% in Q1 22 as a combination of Omicron-driven restrictions on movement and base effects weighed on the GDP print. We revise down our FY22-23 growth forecast to 7.0%, acknowledging the downside risks to growth," Barclays India said.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Sujan Hajra of Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers soundedoptimistic on the GDP numbers, sayingthere were "several positive indicators" in the data.
"The rebound in capex in FY22 is the biggest positive. Even private consumption shows signs of improvement. But for large trade deficit and subdued increase in government consumption, GDP growth could be in double digits in FY22 and close to 8 percent in Q4 FY22," Hajra noted.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
According to Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, the underlying GDP numbersare indicative of only a gradual recovery.
"From the expenditure side, private consumption as well as investment growth were muted in Q4 FY22 which reflected in the production side with contraction in manufacturing and weak growth in construction as well as services," Rakshit noted.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
At 8.7 percent, a favourable base effect helped propelIndia's FY22 GDP growth rate tothe highest in at least 17 years. But the huge statistical influence means it is more important than ever to look at the numbers that lie beneath the headline. Here's what experts have to say.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Manufacturing contraction in January-March quarter is an aberration, the CEA said. The manufacturing sector contracted by 0.2 percent as compared to the same period last year.
India GDP Growth LIVE |
According to the chief economic adviser, a robust response the is expected from private sector in second halfwhen global risks dissipate. Currently,global monetary tightening andrisk of commodity prices going up posechallenges to economy, he added.
Managing the troika of growth, inflation, fiscal balance is a challenge for all economies, Nageswaran noted.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Interest rates becoming normal need not be anti-growth move,the CEA said, adding that the central bank’s confidence to raise rates signalthat "recovery is taking root".
The financial sector in far better health than before, and external sector has also improved,he further noted.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Despite the sequential decline in Q4 growth, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said he "does not see a prospect of recessionin India" in FY23. There is considerable momentum in economic activity as witnessed by GST numbers in April,the CEA added.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Sequential growth was low due to Omicron wave in January,Chief Economic AdviserVAnantha Nageswaran said. The economy had grown by 5.4 percent in Q3 FY22, as compared to 4.1 percent in Q4.
ndia Q4 GDP LIVE |
IStagflationaryrisks for India quite low compared to the rest of the world, said Chief Economic AdvisorVAnantha Nageswaran.There is considerable momentum in economic activity as witnessed by GST numbers in April, he added.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Thegross fixed cap formation growth for FY22 came in at 15.8 percent, as against a contraction of 10.4 percent in FY21.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Services sector grew at8.4 percent in the March 2022 quarter, as compared to a contraction of7.8 percent in the year-ago period. Industries grew at 10.3 percent during the quarter, as against a contraction of 3.3 percent in the corresponding period last year.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
"GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2021-22 is estimated at ₹ 40.78 lakh crore, as against ₹ 39.18 lakh crore in Q4 2020-21, showing a growth of 4.1 percent," theMinistry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 236.65 lakh crore, as against Rs 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.5 percent.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Real GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, as against the first revised estimate of Rs 135.58 lakh crore for the year 2020-21, released on January 31, 2022, the Ministry ofStatistics & Programme Implementation said.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
The GDP growth rate estimate for FY22, at 8.7%, will mark India's highest real growth in at least 17 years for which comparable data is available. The country witnessed a negative growth of 6.6%in FY21 due to the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, which had derailed most sectors of the economy.
India Q4 GDP LIVE | Q4FY22 Growth In A Snapshot
FY22 GDP 8.7%
Agriculture 3%
Mining 11.5%
Manufacturing 9.9%
Electricity, Gas 7.5%
Construction 11.5%
Trade & Hotels 11.1%
Finance, Realty 4.2%
Public Admin 12.6%
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Q4FY22 GDP Growth At 4.1% Vs 2.5% (YoY)
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
FY22 GDP Growth At 8.7% Vs -6.6% (YoY)
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Agri growth at 3%
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
India Q4 GDP expands by 4.1% YoY
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.7%
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to revise India's growth projection for 2022 and lower it from its previous forecast of 8.2 percent. The move comes amid risks of global stagflation, an IMF official told PTI.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
The economy's near-term prospects have been darkened by a spike in retail inflation, which hit an eight-year high of 7.8% in April.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
Forecasts for the data, due at 1200 GMT on Tuesday, ranged from 2.8% to 5.5% in the May 23-26 survey of 46 economists.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
The growth rate is expected to have dampened toJanuary-March quarter from a year earlier,a Reuters poll showed last week. That would be the slowest pace in a year, following 5.4% growth in the previous quarter.
India Q4 GDP LIVE |
The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021-22, as well as for the entire financial year, will be declared by the government shortly.
