India's kharif sowing has covered 2.5 percent more area this season than last year, but weeks of heavy rains threaten to wash away those gains. A Moneycontrol analysis shows that while rice and coarse cereals have seen healthy coverage, crops in several states are now at risk as rains intensify.
"Excess rains have resulted in flooding across the northwest region, with damage to crops and livelihoods. Sowing is complete for the kharif season but excess rains in northwest and central regions could pose risk of crop damage, particularly for rice and pulses," said Aastha Gudwani, India Chief Economist, Barclays.
All-India rainfall between August 22 and September 9 was nearly 18 percent above normal, with sharp excesses reported in Punjab (+45 percent), Haryana (+40 percent), Rajasthan (+26 percent), Gujarat (+27 percent), and Jammu & Kashmir (+49 percent). Southern states, too, were hit, with Karnataka recording 14 percent higher rainfall and Telangana 26 percent.
This development is worrying because these states are among India's largest kharif crop producers. Punjab and Haryana together contributed 17 percent of rice output in 2024–25, while Rajasthan dominates coarse cereals and pulses. With crops already in the ground, excess moisture risks damaging fields and hurting harvest quality. Telangana and Karnataka, which account for a tenth of India’s rice and over a fifth of coarse cereals and pulses, are also under pressure. Western Rajasthan alone has seen rainfall 79 percent above normal this season.
Food grains steady, but commercial crops falter
Sowing data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows rice area up 4.7 percent year-on-year to 438 million hectares, while coarse cereals are up 6.7 percent. Overall food grain sowing is 2.5 percent higher than last year, helped by sugarcane and maize. But pulses and oilseeds continue to lag. Pulses are up just 1.7 percent, with tur acreage slipping 1.1 percent. Oilseeds are down 2.7 percent, cotton has shrunk 2.6 percent, and jute and mesta have fallen more than 3 percent.
Regional impact uneven
Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest food grain producer, has so far avoided rainfall extremes, but eastern states such as Bihar and Jharkhand remain vulnerable, with erratic rains and low productivity per hectare. In contrast, excess rains in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan could hit both rice and coarse cereals. Karnataka, the second-largest pulses producer, has also seen rainfall intensify, raising concerns for tur and urad crops.
For now, food grain coverage suggests India could still meet its production targets, but quality and yield will depend on how quickly rains ease in September. With pulses, oilseeds, and cotton already underperforming, the margin for error is narrowing fast.
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