A strengthened El Nino has started to hurt Indian rainfall making July rainfall 33 percent deficient and overall rainfall 5 percent below normal as of yesterday.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, DS Pai, Director of Long Range Forecast, India Meteorological Department says except for northern India, no other region was getting good rainfall.
Monsoon will improve July 23 onwards and on the back of this IMD maintains its long-period average (LPA) rainfall at 80-85 percent for August and September, he says.
He expects LPA rainfall for the year in the range of 83-101 percent from the previous estimate of 92 percent and says IMD will review monsoon targets only in the last week of July.
Crop sowing has been impacted in Gujarat, Maharasthra and North Karnataka, though the agricultural department is working towards resolving the issues, he says. However, he adds, this average is still better than last 10 years’ average.
Below is the edited transcript of DS Pai's interview with Reema Tendulkar and Nigel D'souza on CNBC-TV18.
Reema: First, could you give us an update what is the status? Cumulatively, what has been the rainfall so far?
A: The rainfall deficiency for country as a whole was about five percentage as of yesterday. Region wise, Northwest India, was 20 percentage surplus, for Northeast India, eight percentage deficient, for Central India, deficiency of 11 percentage and about 14 percentage of deficiency for South Peninsula.
Nigel: What is your forecast then for July, you were going in with around 92 percent of Long Period Average (LPA)? Are you sticking to that or do you believe that in fact you could be downing that?
A: Actually our forecast is 92 plus/minus 9 percentage, so we are expecting that is much below than 92, so that will be 92 minus 9, within that range.
Nigel: So what is the probability of you reducing that to that nine points lower compared to the 92 percent? Is the probability increased because we are halfway through July and things are not looking good as you were telling us, so do you believe that the probability has increased, that now it stands to maybe halfway through July you could be moving down from that around that 92 percent mark?
A: The main reason is that so far the deficiency in July alone is about 33 percentage till yesterday, so if you account today’s rainfall, it can go further lower and we are expecting much improved recovery of monsoon only after around 23rd, so only in the last week of July, much increased rainfall activity may be there in the central India and South Peninsula though for next two or three days there will be improvement in the rainfall activity over South Peninsula particularly above the west coast. Then by 20th there will be improvement in the coastal Maharashtra and by 23rd interior Maharashtra and Central India, we expect- real improvement will be last week of July.
Reema: Rainfall in July is 33 percent below normal?
A: Yes, last 14 days.
Reema: When does the IMD come out with its second official forecast?
A: Our update will be in the end of July for the second half of the season.
Reema: With a pick up in monsoons, say by the last week of July 23rd onward, what could be the extent of deficiency in July according to you?
A: As I said, we have given an 80-85 percentage it can be because now there is 85 percentage of the (long period average (LPA) which means around 15-20 percentage deficiency.
Nigel: We had a fairly good June in fact and now July is not looking so good, so to maintain that 88 percent of LPA that you had forecasted for the overall monsoon, how much of a pickup should we see in August as well as September to come up to that 88 percent or is that already in doubt and are we working already with may be a minus 9 on that one as well?
A: We will come up with a forecast in the end of this month for August and September but we believe almost whatever rainfall we get in the first half, we should get almost the same amount of rainfall in the second half but exact figure we will let you know in the month end because particularly since El Nino is becoming more stronger as the time is passing, we expect some impact in the second half of the season.
Reema: I just wanted to know if the weak monsoon in July has affected sowing, anything that you have heard on that front?
A: Yes there was some impact in Gujarat and Maharashtra and northern parts of Karnataka and agriculture ministry is taking action and they have been appropriately advised, but otherwise in most of the region, particularly north and north-west and eastern part because of the last week’s good rainfall activity, things have improved a lot.
Nigel: Have you done any kind of status check in terms of what is the river storage levels at various basins, the Ganga and the likes, is there any check on that as well?
A: As per the reports, as of now the things are lot better than last year and even better than last 10 year’s average over most of the dams.
Nigel: In the last month itself it was at around 40 percent higher, so do you think that figure has come down because as you said, it was higher than the normal average, any update on those figures? That was the number we had as of the end of June.
A: Exact figure is not available with me readily, may be in the southern peninsula there may be some decrease and maybe in some part of Maharashtra as I said in the western part but in the north and eastern part, things has improved than the last update.
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