A good monsoon in 2016 helped in achieving record Kharif crops output, and India is set to replicate the performance in Rabi or winter sown crops too, said a study by economic think-tank NCAER.
As per the NCAER's report on the short-term agricultural outlook for the 2017 Rabi season, Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sector registered a significant 3.3 percent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2016-17 as compared to 1.8 percent growth in the previous quarter.
Overall, a robust growth of 4.1 percent is estimated for the agriculture sector in 2016-17 as against the previous year's drought-impacted growth rate of 1.2 percent.
In comparison, the latest official estimates suggest 4.4 percent growth for 2016-17 and 0.8 percent for 2015-16.
"The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2016-17, which is more than double the drought- impacted growth rate of 1.2 percent in 2015-16.
"After a record or near-record production of most Kharif crops in 2016-17, India is heading for a record or near-record production of Rabi crops," said NCAER's Senior Research Counsellor, Rajesh Chadha.
The findings of the NCAER report are based on a comprehensive assessment of various factors including farm input prices and availability, monsoon rainfall, national and international market demand conditions and government policies impacting this year's Rabi and Kharif crop production.
The forecast for wheat production in the Rabi season is 96-98.7 million tonnes compared with the government's estimate of 96.6 million tonnes assuming normal weather conditions through harvest.
The NCAER forecast for Rabi rice production is over 13 million tonnes compared with the government's estimate of 12.8 million tonnes.
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