Neutral Aegis Logistics; target of Rs 725: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Aegis Logistics

In 1QFY26, AEGIS reported EBITDA of INR2.4b, missing our estimate by 14% as normalized EBITDA of Liquid division came in 33% below our estimate, while that of gas division stood 11% above estimates. Management has reiterated its PAT guidance of 25% CAGR over the next few years, primarily led by robust upcoming capacities. We estimate a 13% CAGR in EPS over FY25-27E. However, the current valuations at FY27E PE of 29.6x and PB of 4.4x (FY27 ROE: 15.7%) are expensive. Hence, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock with a TP of INR725, based on 30x FY27E EPS of INR24.1.

Outlook

While we estimate a 13% CAGR in EPS over FY25-27E, we believe that the current valuations at 29.6x FY27E EPS already factor in the strong expansion in capacity and earnings. We value the stock at 30x FY27E EPS of INR24.1 to arrive at our TP of INR725. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.