The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its second stage report has largely kept its forecast for the monsoon unchanged from its earlier reading.El Nino conditions have turned 'neutral to negative' and La Nina conditions are likely to develop in the latter half of the monsoon.
The monsoon during June-September is likely to be above-normal. The rainfall this year will be 106 percent of the long period average, it said.
The rainfall in July will be 107 percent of long period average and 104 percent in August.
It also added that rainfall in the second half of June to be better than the first half.DS Pai, Director, Long Range Forecast, IMD, said, except easter and north easter where we are expecting 94 percent of the long period average, the rest of India should see above-normal rains. July and August will have above-normal rainfalls.Jatin Singh, Skymet's CEO, is very much on the same page as the IMD. He said he had expected IMD to bump up monsoon forecast, adding that Mumbai will gets its first showers by June 10.
The market will take a note of the news, but it won't react to it as the news was already priced in, says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers.
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